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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Pasco, FL · ZIP 33543 · Census Tract 12101032107 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$466K
Downside (P10)
$390K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$485K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$622K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $205K | $228K | $252K | $251K | $260K | $278K | $310K | $372K | $445K | $466K | $466K | $467K | $477K | $485K | $485K |
| YoY Change | +11.2% | +10.6% | -0.6% | +3.9% | +6.9% | +11.3% | +20.0% | +19.8% | +4.7% | -0.1% | +0.3% | +2.1% | +1.8% | +0.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $399K | $399K | $390K | $428K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $537K | $597K | $622K | $550K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$399K to $537K
29.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$428K to $550K
25.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Chapel | $463K | $485K | +4.8% | |
| New Port Richey (Tract 031605) | $448K | $521K | +16.4% | |
| Central Pasco | $452K | $517K | +14.3% | |
| New Port Richey (Tract 031504) | $478K | $539K | +12.6% | |
| Wesley Chapel | $458K | $496K | +8.4% | |
| New Port Richey (Tract 030303) | $458K | $489K | +6.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Chapel | $463K | $485K | +4.8% | |
| Central Pasco | $442K | $545K | +23.2% | |
| Lacoochee | $265K | $312K | +17.9% | |
| Land O' Lakes | $389K | $455K | +17.1% | |
| New Port Richey | $448K | $521K | +16.4% | |
| Dade City | $230K | $266K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Chapel | $463K | $485K | $231K | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033014) | $73K | $80K | $45K | |
| Dade City | $73K | $79K | $42K | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033101) | $76K | $80K | $41K | |
| Bayonet Point | $119K | $123K | $39K | |
| Port Richey | $65K | $73K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.