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Pasco, FL · ZIP 34668 · Census Tract 12101031006 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$167K
Downside (P10)
$109K
-35% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$166K
-0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$237K
+42% by 2030
Base case: -0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -35% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 58% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $59K | $60K | $66K | $77K | $101K | $111K | $113K | $136K | $158K | $164K | $167K | $167K | $172K | $166K |
| YoY Change | +1.7% | +10.4% | +16.8% | +31.3% | +9.8% | +1.9% | +20.4% | +15.7% | +4.3% | +1.5% | +0.1% | +3.1% | -3.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $128K | $126K | $109K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $218K | $226K | $237K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. This typically reflects limited transaction history, high price variance, or rapid neighborhood change.
1-Year Spread
$128K to $218K
53.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$109K to $237K
76.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Estates | $167K | $166K | -0.4% | |
| Holiday | $170K | $194K | +14.2% | |
| Zephyrhills | $168K | $184K | +9.7% | |
| New Port Richey (Tract 031412) | $165K | $178K | +7.6% | |
| New Port Richey (Tract 031407) | $171K | $182K | +6.8% | |
| Port Richey | $163K | $171K | +4.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Estates | $167K | $166K | -0.4% | |
| Central Pasco | $442K | $545K | +23.2% | |
| Lacoochee | $265K | $312K | +17.9% | |
| Land O' Lakes | $389K | $455K | +17.1% | |
| New Port Richey | $448K | $521K | +16.4% | |
| Dade City | $230K | $266K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Estates | $167K | $166K | $128K | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033014) | $73K | $80K | $45K | |
| Dade City | $73K | $79K | $42K | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033101) | $76K | $80K | $41K | |
| Bayonet Point | $119K | $123K | $39K | |
| Port Richey | $65K | $73K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.