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Pasco, FL · ZIP 34690 · Census Tract 12101030502 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$206K
Downside (P10)
$182K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$218K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$297K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $79K | $78K | $77K | $81K | $86K | $95K | $106K | $130K | $177K | $205K | $206K | $209K | $213K | $218K |
| YoY Change | -0.8% | -1.3% | +4.3% | +6.5% | +11.2% | +11.5% | +21.8% | +36.7% | +15.9% | +0.3% | +1.3% | +2.2% | +2.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $190K | $185K | $182K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $251K | $260K | $297K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$190K to $251K
29.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$182K to $297K
52.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holiday · 34690 · (Tract 305.2) | $206K | $218K | +5.5% | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033005) | $207K | $226K | +8.8% | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 032802) | $206K | $222K | +8.0% | |
| New Port Richey | $205K | $218K | +6.6% | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033102) | $204K | $217K | +6.3% | |
| Port Richey | $207K | $217K | +4.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holiday · 34690 · (Tract 305.2) | $206K | $218K | +5.5% | |
| Central Pasco | $442K | $545K | +23.2% | |
| Lacoochee | $265K | $312K | +17.9% | |
| Land O' Lakes | $389K | $455K | +17.1% | |
| New Port Richey | $448K | $521K | +16.4% | |
| Dade City | $230K | $266K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holiday · 34690 · (Tract 305.2) | $206K | $218K | $114K | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033014) | $73K | $80K | $45K | |
| Dade City | $73K | $79K | $42K | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033101) | $76K | $80K | $41K | |
| Bayonet Point | $119K | $123K | $39K | |
| Port Richey | $65K | $73K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.