Marion, FL · ZIP 34481 · Census Tract 12083002609 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$200K
Downside (P10)
$165K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$210K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$281K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +41%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Marion markets.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $110K | $123K | $168K | $187K | $203K | $200K | $205K | $209K | $210K |
| YoY Change | +11.4% | +36.7% | +11.8% | +8.3% | -1.5% | +2.5% | +2.3% | +0.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $182K | $172K | $165K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $246K | $258K | $281K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$182K to $246K
31.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$165K to $281K
55.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| On Top of the World | $202K | $210K | +4.0% | |
| Dunnellon | $200K | $230K | +14.9% | |
| Ocala | $201K | $214K | +6.8% | |
| Belleview | $198K | $210K | +5.8% | |
| Ocala | $202K | $218K | +8.4% | |
| Fellowship | $202K | $223K | +10.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| On Top of the World | $202K | $210K | +4.0% | |
| Ocala | $162K | $196K | +21.1% | |
| Ocala | $256K | $300K | +17.2% | |
| The Villages | $412K | $476K | +15.6% | |
| Dunnellon | $200K | $230K | +14.9% | |
| Dunnellon | $167K | $191K | +14.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| On Top of the World | $202K | $210K | $116K | |
| East Marion | $60K | $62K | $27K | |
| Ocala | $57K | $60K | $31K | |
| Belleview | $91K | $96K | $51K | |
| East Marion | $88K | $95K | $55K | |
| East Marion | $96K | $106K | $60K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.