What is the home price forecast for Parcel 12017451603 in Sugarmill Woods?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $373,002 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 9.0%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 12017451603 in Sugarmill Woods?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $373,002 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 9.0%.

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Parcel 12017451603 (Sugarmill Woods) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 12017451603, Sugarmill Woods Home Price Forecast

Citrus, FL · ZIP 34461 · Census Tract 12017451603 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$373K

Downside (P10)

$314K

-16% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$406K

+9% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$523K

+40% by 2030

Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$223K	$231K	$319K	$306K	$361K	$373K	$391K	$404K	$406K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$150,302	-$142,402	-$54,202	-$67,202	-$11,602		+$17,818	+$30,509	+$33,457
Growth % vs 2026	-40.3%	-38.2%	-14.5%	-18.0%	-3.1%		+4.8%	+8.2%	+9.0%
Downside (P10)							$319K	$323K	$314K
Upside (P90)							$448K	$488K	$523K

Forecast Confidence

72%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.

Near-term band

$319K to $448K

32.9% of median

Long-horizon band

$314K to $523K

51.4% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +9.0% · Spread: 51%

·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 12017451603, Sugarmill Woods on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).