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Citrus, FL · ZIP 34461 · Census Tract 12017451603 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$373K
Downside (P10)
$314K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$406K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$523K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $223K | $231K | $319K | $306K | $361K | $373K | $391K | $404K | $406K |
| YoY Change | +3.5% | +38.2% | -4.1% | +18.2% | +3.2% | +4.8% | +3.2% | +0.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $319K | $323K | $314K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $448K | $488K | $523K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$319K to $448K
32.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$314K to $523K
51.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sugarmill Woods | $367K | $406K | +10.8% | |
| Homosassa | $368K | $422K | +14.9% | |
| Inverness (Tract 450104) | $320K | $354K | +10.6% | |
| Sugarmill Woods | $348K | $371K | +6.8% | |
| Inverness (Tract 450704) | $355K | $374K | +5.2% | |
| Crystal River | $425K | $428K | +0.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sugarmill Woods | $367K | $406K | +10.8% | |
| Inverness (Tract 451101) | $282K | $331K | +17.3% | |
| Homosassa | $368K | $422K | +14.9% | |
| Sugarmill Woods | $308K | $351K | +14.1% | |
| Crystal River | $261K | $297K | +13.6% | |
| Inverness (Tract 450901) | $201K | $227K | +12.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sugarmill Woods | $367K | $406K | $209K | |
| Inverness (Tract 450106) | $193K | $198K | $110K | |
| Inverness (Tract 450901) | $201K | $227K | $108K | |
| Inverness (Tract 451104) | $170K | $189K | $107K | |
| Crystal River (Tract 451702) | $108K | $109K | $82K | |
| Crystal River (Tract 451605) | $93K | $96K | $52K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.