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Ventura, CA · ZIP 93004 · Census Tract 06111001302 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$398K
Downside (P10)
$343K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$442K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$600K
+51% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +51%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $173K | $203K | $229K | $274K | $307K | $341K | $354K | $377K | $373K | $387K | $398K | $409K | $417K | $442K |
| YoY Change | +17.5% | +13.0% | +19.5% | +11.9% | +11.3% | +3.8% | +6.4% | -1.0% | +3.8% | +2.8% | +2.9% | +1.9% | +5.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $353K | $343K | $343K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $480K | $544K | $600K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$353K to $480K
31.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$343K to $600K
58.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ventura · 93004 · (Tract 13.2) | $392K | $442K | +12.6% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004710) | $343K | $396K | +15.3% | |
| Thousand Oaks | $425K | $465K | +9.3% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004507) | $462K | $494K | +6.8% | |
| San Buenaventura (Ventura) | $443K | $470K | +5.9% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 009100) | $440K | $461K | +4.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ventura · 93004 · (Tract 13.2) | $392K | $442K | +12.6% | |
| Triunfo Pass-Point Mugu | $1.98M | $2.40M | +21.6% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 003011) | $695K | $844K | +21.4% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004503) | $493K | $596K | +20.8% | |
| Thousand Oaks | $1.04M | $1.24M | +19.2% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004505) | $588K | $697K | +18.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ventura · 93004 · (Tract 13.2) | $392K | $442K | $258K | |
| Thousand Oaks | $425K | $465K | $250K | |
| Camarillo | $466K | $504K | $235K | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004710) | $343K | $396K | $209K | |
| Santa Paula | $245K | $253K | $157K | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004704) | $155K | $168K | $108K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.