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Ventura, CA · ZIP 93040 · Census Tract 06111009700 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$612K
Downside (P10)
$521K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$642K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$837K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $388K | $403K | $451K | $565K | $581K | $612K | $594K | $620K | $642K |
| YoY Change | +3.9% | +11.7% | +25.4% | +2.8% | +5.4% | -2.9% | +4.3% | +3.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $522K | $518K | $521K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $693K | $750K | $837K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$522K to $693K
28.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$521K to $837K
49.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Padres | $577K | $642K | +11.2% | |
| Port Hueneme | $622K | $701K | +12.7% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 003700) | $611K | $682K | +11.6% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 003010) | $604K | $665K | +10.1% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004504) | $612K | $658K | +7.5% | |
| San Buenaventura (Ventura) | $616K | $656K | +6.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Padres | $577K | $642K | +11.2% | |
| Triunfo Pass-Point Mugu | $1.98M | $2.40M | +21.6% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 003011) | $695K | $844K | +21.4% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004503) | $493K | $596K | +20.8% | |
| Thousand Oaks | $1.04M | $1.24M | +19.2% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004505) | $588K | $697K | +18.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Padres | $577K | $642K | $316K | |
| Thousand Oaks | $425K | $465K | $250K | |
| Camarillo | $466K | $504K | $235K | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004710) | $343K | $396K | $209K | |
| Santa Paula | $245K | $253K | $157K | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004704) | $155K | $168K | $108K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.