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Ventura, CA · ZIP 93041 · Census Tract 06111004400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$626K
Downside (P10)
$538K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$701K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$880K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $325K | $378K | $438K | $438K | $441K | $448K | $453K | $508K | $603K | $618K | $626K | $651K | $687K | $701K | $640K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$300,715 | -$247,615 | -$187,415 | -$187,815 | -$185,215 | -$177,315 | -$172,915 | -$117,915 | -$22,415 | -$7,915 | +$25,088 | +$61,623 | +$75,063 | +$13,898 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -48.1% | -39.6% | -30.0% | -30.0% | -29.6% | -28.3% | -27.6% | -18.8% | -3.6% | -1.3% | +4.0% | +9.8% | +12.0% | +2.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $539K | $533K | $538K | $569K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $786K | $904K | $880K | $718K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$539K to $786K
38.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$569K to $718K
23.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Hueneme | $622K | $701K | +12.7% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 003101) | $638K | $701K | +9.9% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004504) | $612K | $658K | +7.5% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 005004) | $636K | $683K | +7.3% | |
| San Buenaventura (Ventura) | $616K | $656K | +6.5% | |
| Ojai-Mira Monte | $632K | $657K | +3.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Hueneme | $622K | $701K | +12.7% | |
| Triunfo Pass-Point Mugu | $1.98M | $2.40M | +21.6% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 003011) | $695K | $844K | +21.4% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004503) | $493K | $596K | +20.8% | |
| Thousand Oaks | $1.04M | $1.24M | +19.2% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004505) | $588K | $697K | +18.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Hueneme | $622K | $701K | $342K | |
| Thousand Oaks | $425K | $465K | $250K | |
| Camarillo | $466K | $504K | $235K | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004710) | $343K | $396K | $209K | |
| Santa Paula | $245K | $253K | $157K | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004704) | $155K | $168K | $108K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Ventura, CA · ZIP 93041 · Census Tract 06111004400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$626K
Downside (P10)
$538K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$701K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$880K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $325K | $378K | $438K | $438K | $441K | $448K | $453K | $508K | $603K | $618K | $626K | $651K | $687K | $701K | $640K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$300,715 | -$247,615 | -$187,415 | -$187,815 | -$185,215 | -$177,315 | -$172,915 | -$117,915 | -$22,415 | -$7,915 | +$25,088 | +$61,623 | +$75,063 | +$13,898 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -48.1% | -39.6% | -30.0% | -30.0% | -29.6% | -28.3% | -27.6% | -18.8% | -3.6% | -1.3% | +4.0% | +9.8% | +12.0% | +2.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $539K | $533K | $538K | $569K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $786K | $904K | $880K | $718K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$539K to $786K
38.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$569K to $718K
23.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Hueneme | $622K | $701K | +12.7% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 003101) | $638K | $701K | +9.9% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004504) | $612K | $658K | +7.5% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 005004) | $636K | $683K | +7.3% | |
| San Buenaventura (Ventura) | $616K | $656K | +6.5% | |
| Ojai-Mira Monte | $632K | $657K | +3.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Hueneme | $622K | $701K | +12.7% | |
| Triunfo Pass-Point Mugu | $1.98M | $2.40M | +21.6% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 003011) | $695K | $844K | +21.4% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004503) | $493K | $596K | +20.8% | |
| Thousand Oaks | $1.04M | $1.24M | +19.2% | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004505) | $588K | $697K | +18.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Hueneme | $622K | $701K | $342K | |
| Thousand Oaks | $425K | $465K | $250K | |
| Camarillo | $466K | $504K | $235K | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004710) | $343K | $396K | $209K | |
| Santa Paula | $245K | $253K | $157K | |
| Oxnard (Tract 004704) | $155K | $168K | $108K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
