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Stanislaus, CA · ZIP 95360 · Census Tract 06099003501 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$446K
Downside (P10)
$384K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$494K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$657K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $292K | $323K | $374K | $407K | $431K | $446K | $450K | $485K | $494K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$154,047 | -$122,547 | -$71,647 | -$38,447 | -$14,747 | +$4,638 | +$39,219 | +$47,896 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -34.6% | -27.5% | -16.1% | -8.6% | -3.3% | +1.0% | +8.8% | +10.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $392K | $380K | $384K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $559K | $607K | $657K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$392K to $559K
37.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$384K to $657K
55.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newman | $437K | $494K | +13.0% | |
| Modesto (Tract 000602) | $440K | $508K | +15.4% | |
| Modesto (Tract 000503) | $449K | $497K | +10.8% | |
| Ceres (Tract 002505) | $443K | $475K | +7.4% | |
| Ceres (Tract 002603) | $446K | $465K | +4.4% | |
| Modesto (Tract 000909) | $446K | $465K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newman | $437K | $494K | +13.0% | |
| Modesto (Tract 002303) | $421K | $499K | +18.4% | |
| Waterford | $473K | $556K | +17.5% | |
| Modesto (Tract 002702) | $395K | $464K | +17.4% | |
| Modesto (Tract 001001) | $476K | $557K | +17.2% | |
| Turlock | $376K | $440K | +17.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newman | $437K | $494K | $273K | |
| Modesto (Tract 003002) | $357K | $377K | $160K | |
| Modesto (Tract 002304) | $273K | $301K | $151K | |
| Modesto (Tract 000803) | $250K | $269K | $148K | |
| Modesto (Tract 001700) | $294K | $311K | $128K | |
| Turlock | $64K | $70K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Stanislaus, CA · ZIP 95360 · Census Tract 06099003501 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$446K
Downside (P10)
$384K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$494K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$657K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $292K | $323K | $374K | $407K | $431K | $446K | $450K | $485K | $494K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$154,047 | -$122,547 | -$71,647 | -$38,447 | -$14,747 | +$4,638 | +$39,219 | +$47,896 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -34.6% | -27.5% | -16.1% | -8.6% | -3.3% | +1.0% | +8.8% | +10.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $392K | $380K | $384K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $559K | $607K | $657K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$392K to $559K
37.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$384K to $657K
55.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newman | $437K | $494K | +13.0% | |
| Modesto (Tract 000602) | $440K | $508K | +15.4% | |
| Modesto (Tract 000503) | $449K | $497K | +10.8% | |
| Ceres (Tract 002505) | $443K | $475K | +7.4% | |
| Ceres (Tract 002603) | $446K | $465K | +4.4% | |
| Modesto (Tract 000909) | $446K | $465K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newman | $437K | $494K | +13.0% | |
| Modesto (Tract 002303) | $421K | $499K | +18.4% | |
| Waterford | $473K | $556K | +17.5% | |
| Modesto (Tract 002702) | $395K | $464K | +17.4% | |
| Modesto (Tract 001001) | $476K | $557K | +17.2% | |
| Turlock | $376K | $440K | +17.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newman | $437K | $494K | $273K | |
| Modesto (Tract 003002) | $357K | $377K | $160K | |
| Modesto (Tract 002304) | $273K | $301K | $151K | |
| Modesto (Tract 000803) | $250K | $269K | $148K | |
| Modesto (Tract 001700) | $294K | $311K | $128K | |
| Turlock | $64K | $70K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
