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Stanislaus, CA · ZIP 95307 · Census Tract 06099003003 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$559K
Downside (P10)
$465K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$649K
+16% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$840K
+50% by 2030
Base case: +16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $363K | $394K | $503K | $556K | $545K | $559K | $575K | $603K | $649K | $574K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$195,982 | -$165,082 | -$55,282 | -$2,982 | -$13,482 | +$16,671 | +$44,650 | +$90,571 | +$15,509 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -35.1% | -29.6% | -9.9% | -0.5% | -2.4% | +3.0% | +8.0% | +16.2% | +2.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $477K | $461K | $465K | $503K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $703K | $761K | $840K | $640K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$477K to $703K
39.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$503K to $640K
23.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modesto | $558K | $649K | +16.3% | |
| Turlock (Tract 003612) | $548K | $611K | +11.5% | |
| Newman | $562K | $616K | +9.7% | |
| Turlock (Tract 003609) | $567K | $617K | +8.8% | |
| Turlock (Tract 003905) | $568K | $615K | +8.4% | |
| Modesto | $558K | $592K | +6.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modesto | $558K | $649K | +16.3% | |
| Modesto (Tract 002303) | $421K | $499K | +18.4% | |
| Waterford | $473K | $556K | +17.5% | |
| Modesto (Tract 002702) | $395K | $464K | +17.4% | |
| Modesto (Tract 001001) | $476K | $557K | +17.2% | |
| Turlock | $376K | $440K | +17.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modesto | $558K | $649K | $376K | |
| Modesto (Tract 003002) | $357K | $377K | $160K | |
| Modesto (Tract 002304) | $273K | $301K | $151K | |
| Modesto (Tract 000803) | $250K | $269K | $148K | |
| Modesto (Tract 001700) | $294K | $311K | $128K | |
| Turlock | $64K | $70K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Stanislaus, CA · ZIP 95307 · Census Tract 06099003003 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$559K
Downside (P10)
$465K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$649K
+16% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$840K
+50% by 2030
Base case: +16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $363K | $394K | $503K | $556K | $545K | $559K | $575K | $603K | $649K | $574K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$195,982 | -$165,082 | -$55,282 | -$2,982 | -$13,482 | +$16,671 | +$44,650 | +$90,571 | +$15,509 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -35.1% | -29.6% | -9.9% | -0.5% | -2.4% | +3.0% | +8.0% | +16.2% | +2.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $477K | $461K | $465K | $503K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $703K | $761K | $840K | $640K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$477K to $703K
39.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$503K to $640K
23.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modesto | $558K | $649K | +16.3% | |
| Turlock (Tract 003612) | $548K | $611K | +11.5% | |
| Newman | $562K | $616K | +9.7% | |
| Turlock (Tract 003609) | $567K | $617K | +8.8% | |
| Turlock (Tract 003905) | $568K | $615K | +8.4% | |
| Modesto | $558K | $592K | +6.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modesto | $558K | $649K | +16.3% | |
| Modesto (Tract 002303) | $421K | $499K | +18.4% | |
| Waterford | $473K | $556K | +17.5% | |
| Modesto (Tract 002702) | $395K | $464K | +17.4% | |
| Modesto (Tract 001001) | $476K | $557K | +17.2% | |
| Turlock | $376K | $440K | +17.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modesto | $558K | $649K | $376K | |
| Modesto (Tract 003002) | $357K | $377K | $160K | |
| Modesto (Tract 002304) | $273K | $301K | $151K | |
| Modesto (Tract 000803) | $250K | $269K | $148K | |
| Modesto (Tract 001700) | $294K | $311K | $128K | |
| Turlock | $64K | $70K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
