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Sonoma, CA · ZIP 94951 · Census Tract 06097151309 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$795K
Downside (P10)
$643K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$860K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.10M
+38% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $389K | $413K | $487K | $558K | $610K | $648K | $648K | $778K | $769K | $776K | $795K | $827K | $845K | $860K |
| YoY Change | +6.2% | +18.0% | +14.4% | +9.4% | +6.3% | -0.1% | +20.2% | -1.2% | +0.8% | +2.4% | +4.1% | +2.1% | +1.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $685K | $672K | $643K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $983K | $1.1M | $1.1M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$685K to $983K
36.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$643K to $1.10M
52.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petaluma | $789K | $860K | +9.0% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151601) | $795K | $920K | +15.7% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152501) | $789K | $865K | +9.6% | |
| Sonoma (Tract 150306) | $792K | $856K | +8.0% | |
| Petaluma | $800K | $838K | +4.7% | |
| Sonoma (Tract 150303) | $795K | $818K | +2.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petaluma | $789K | $860K | +9.0% | |
| Sonoma | $917K | $1.10M | +19.8% | |
| Russian River-Sonoma Coast | $649K | $770K | +18.5% | |
| Petaluma | $601K | $712K | +18.4% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151504) | $769K | $903K | +17.5% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152601) | $995K | $1.17M | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petaluma | $789K | $860K | $452K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 153104) | $527K | $576K | $272K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152701) | $461K | $497K | $269K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152903) | $535K | $556K | $243K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152804) | $438K | $478K | $221K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151405) | $214K | $243K | $142K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.