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Sonoma, CA · ZIP 95476 · Census Tract 06097150305 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$760K
Downside (P10)
$655K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$827K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.20M
+59% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +59%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $351K | $370K | $423K | $488K | $538K | $605K | $622K | $706K | $725K | $733K | $760K | $769K | $799K | $827K |
| YoY Change | +5.2% | +14.3% | +15.4% | +10.2% | +12.5% | +2.7% | +13.5% | +2.8% | +1.1% | +3.6% | +1.2% | +3.9% | +3.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $655K | $668K | $655K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $970K | $1.1M | $1.2M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$655K to $970K
41.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$655K to $1.20M
66.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonoma · 95476 · (Tract 1503.5) | $750K | $827K | +10.2% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152000) | $761K | $859K | +12.9% | |
| Petaluma | $762K | $810K | +6.4% | |
| Russian River-Sonoma Coast (Tract 153705) | $767K | $862K | +12.3% | |
| Russian River-Sonoma Coast (Tract 154304) | $752K | $794K | +5.6% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151504) | $769K | $903K | +17.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonoma · 95476 · (Tract 1503.5) | $750K | $827K | +10.2% | |
| Sonoma | $917K | $1.10M | +19.8% | |
| Russian River-Sonoma Coast | $649K | $770K | +18.5% | |
| Petaluma | $601K | $712K | +18.4% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151504) | $769K | $903K | +17.5% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152601) | $995K | $1.17M | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonoma · 95476 · (Tract 1503.5) | $750K | $827K | $550K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151405) | $214K | $243K | $142K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152804) | $438K | $478K | $221K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152903) | $535K | $556K | $243K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152701) | $461K | $497K | $269K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 153104) | $527K | $576K | $272K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.