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Sonoma, CA · ZIP 95401 · Census Tract 06097153002 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$520K
Downside (P10)
$458K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$583K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$742K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $261K | $301K | $347K | $376K | $432K | $431K | $450K | $478K | $531K | $511K | $520K | $541K | $565K | $583K | $533K |
| YoY Change | +15.3% | +15.3% | +8.2% | +15.0% | -0.2% | +4.5% | +6.2% | +11.0% | -3.7% | +1.8% | +3.9% | +4.4% | +3.2% | -8.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $439K | $471K | $458K | $472K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $634K | $663K | $742K | $602K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$439K to $634K
36.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$472K to $602K
24.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Rosa · 95401 · (Tract 1530.2) | $520K | $583K | +12.0% | |
| Rohnert Park | $561K | $638K | +13.7% | |
| Windsor | $502K | $565K | +12.6% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 153104) | $527K | $576K | +9.4% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152903) | $535K | $556K | +3.9% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 153003) | $484K | $469K | -2.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Rosa · 95401 · (Tract 1530.2) | $520K | $583K | +12.0% | |
| Sonoma | $917K | $1.10M | +19.8% | |
| Russian River-Sonoma Coast | $649K | $770K | +18.5% | |
| Petaluma | $601K | $712K | +18.4% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151504) | $769K | $903K | +17.5% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152601) | $995K | $1.17M | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Rosa · 95401 · (Tract 1530.2) | $520K | $583K | $284K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 153104) | $527K | $576K | $272K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152701) | $461K | $497K | $269K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152903) | $535K | $556K | $243K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152804) | $438K | $478K | $221K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151405) | $214K | $243K | $142K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.