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Sonoma, CA · ZIP 95425 · Census Tract 06097154201 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$645K
Downside (P10)
$572K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$700K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.05M
+63% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +63%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $248K | $249K | $282K | $350K | $454K | $460K | $484K | $555K | $619K | $615K | $645K | $654K | $678K | $700K | $642K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$397,893 | -$396,493 | -$363,793 | -$295,893 | -$191,293 | -$185,193 | -$161,193 | -$90,693 | -$26,693 | -$30,093 | +$8,717 | +$33,098 | +$54,905 | -$3,024 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -61.7% | -61.4% | -56.4% | -45.8% | -29.6% | -28.7% | -25.0% | -14.1% | -4.1% | -4.7% | +1.4% | +5.1% | +8.5% | -0.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $575K | $591K | $572K | $556K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $778K | $939K | $1.0M | $719K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$575K to $778K
31.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$556K to $719K
25.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloverdale-Geyserville · Cloverdale · (Tract 1542.1) | $631K | $700K | +11.0% | |
| Russian River-Sonoma Coast | $649K | $770K | +18.5% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 153103) | $634K | $726K | +14.4% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152502) | $652K | $713K | +9.2% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 153301) | $643K | $697K | +8.4% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151900) | $639K | $663K | +3.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloverdale-Geyserville · Cloverdale · (Tract 1542.1) | $631K | $700K | +11.0% | |
| Sonoma | $917K | $1.10M | +19.8% | |
| Russian River-Sonoma Coast | $649K | $770K | +18.5% | |
| Petaluma | $601K | $712K | +18.4% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151504) | $769K | $903K | +17.5% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152601) | $995K | $1.17M | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloverdale-Geyserville · Cloverdale · (Tract 1542.1) | $631K | $700K | $478K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 153104) | $527K | $576K | $272K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152701) | $461K | $497K | $269K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152903) | $535K | $556K | $243K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152804) | $438K | $478K | $221K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151405) | $214K | $243K | $142K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Sonoma, CA · ZIP 95425 · Census Tract 06097154201 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$645K
Downside (P10)
$572K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$700K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.05M
+63% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +63%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $248K | $249K | $282K | $350K | $454K | $460K | $484K | $555K | $619K | $615K | $645K | $654K | $678K | $700K | $642K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$397,893 | -$396,493 | -$363,793 | -$295,893 | -$191,293 | -$185,193 | -$161,193 | -$90,693 | -$26,693 | -$30,093 | +$8,717 | +$33,098 | +$54,905 | -$3,024 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -61.7% | -61.4% | -56.4% | -45.8% | -29.6% | -28.7% | -25.0% | -14.1% | -4.1% | -4.7% | +1.4% | +5.1% | +8.5% | -0.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $575K | $591K | $572K | $556K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $778K | $939K | $1.0M | $719K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$575K to $778K
31.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$556K to $719K
25.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloverdale-Geyserville · Cloverdale · (Tract 1542.1) | $631K | $700K | +11.0% | |
| Russian River-Sonoma Coast | $649K | $770K | +18.5% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 153103) | $634K | $726K | +14.4% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152502) | $652K | $713K | +9.2% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 153301) | $643K | $697K | +8.4% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151900) | $639K | $663K | +3.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloverdale-Geyserville · Cloverdale · (Tract 1542.1) | $631K | $700K | +11.0% | |
| Sonoma | $917K | $1.10M | +19.8% | |
| Russian River-Sonoma Coast | $649K | $770K | +18.5% | |
| Petaluma | $601K | $712K | +18.4% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151504) | $769K | $903K | +17.5% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152601) | $995K | $1.17M | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloverdale-Geyserville · Cloverdale · (Tract 1542.1) | $631K | $700K | $478K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 153104) | $527K | $576K | $272K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152701) | $461K | $497K | $269K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152903) | $535K | $556K | $243K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152804) | $438K | $478K | $221K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151405) | $214K | $243K | $142K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
