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Shasta, CA · ZIP 96051 · Census Tract 06089012500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$357K
Downside (P10)
$282K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$370K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$494K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $240K | $237K | $249K | $241K | $227K | $239K | $267K | $303K | $319K | $351K | $357K | $362K | $375K | $370K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$117,080 | -$120,780 | -$108,680 | -$116,880 | -$130,880 | -$118,180 | -$90,580 | -$54,680 | -$38,980 | -$6,180 | +$4,655 | +$17,838 | +$12,999 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -32.8% | -33.8% | -30.4% | -32.7% | -36.6% | -33.1% | -25.3% | -15.3% | -10.9% | -1.7% | +1.3% | +5.0% | +3.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $300K | $300K | $282K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $424K | $467K | $494K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$300K to $424K
34.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$282K to $494K
57.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Canyon | $354K | $370K | +4.7% | |
| Redding (Tract 011209) | $347K | $403K | +16.0% | |
| Redding (Tract 010400) | $368K | $426K | +15.6% | |
| Redding (Tract 012302) | $358K | $403K | +12.6% | |
| Redding (Tract 011100) | $367K | $397K | +8.2% | |
| Redding (Tract 010300) | $357K | $377K | +5.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Canyon | $354K | $370K | +4.7% | |
| Redding (Tract 010200) | $330K | $395K | +19.8% | |
| Redding (Tract 011401) | $396K | $460K | +16.2% | |
| Redding (Tract 011209) | $347K | $403K | +16.0% | |
| Redding (Tract 010400) | $368K | $426K | +15.6% | |
| Redding (Tract 012200) | $275K | $317K | +15.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Canyon | $354K | $370K | $212K | |
| Central Shasta | $276K | $295K | $162K | |
| Redding (Tract 011300) | $290K | $323K | $154K | |
| Redding (Tract 010100) | $251K | $271K | $148K | |
| Redding (Tract 010803) | $387K | $417K | $146K | |
| Redding (Tract 010806) | $158K | $177K | $114K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Shasta, CA · ZIP 96051 · Census Tract 06089012500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$357K
Downside (P10)
$282K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$370K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$494K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $240K | $237K | $249K | $241K | $227K | $239K | $267K | $303K | $319K | $351K | $357K | $362K | $375K | $370K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$117,080 | -$120,780 | -$108,680 | -$116,880 | -$130,880 | -$118,180 | -$90,580 | -$54,680 | -$38,980 | -$6,180 | +$4,655 | +$17,838 | +$12,999 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -32.8% | -33.8% | -30.4% | -32.7% | -36.6% | -33.1% | -25.3% | -15.3% | -10.9% | -1.7% | +1.3% | +5.0% | +3.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $300K | $300K | $282K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $424K | $467K | $494K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$300K to $424K
34.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$282K to $494K
57.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Canyon | $354K | $370K | +4.7% | |
| Redding (Tract 011209) | $347K | $403K | +16.0% | |
| Redding (Tract 010400) | $368K | $426K | +15.6% | |
| Redding (Tract 012302) | $358K | $403K | +12.6% | |
| Redding (Tract 011100) | $367K | $397K | +8.2% | |
| Redding (Tract 010300) | $357K | $377K | +5.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Canyon | $354K | $370K | +4.7% | |
| Redding (Tract 010200) | $330K | $395K | +19.8% | |
| Redding (Tract 011401) | $396K | $460K | +16.2% | |
| Redding (Tract 011209) | $347K | $403K | +16.0% | |
| Redding (Tract 010400) | $368K | $426K | +15.6% | |
| Redding (Tract 012200) | $275K | $317K | +15.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Canyon | $354K | $370K | $212K | |
| Central Shasta | $276K | $295K | $162K | |
| Redding (Tract 011300) | $290K | $323K | $154K | |
| Redding (Tract 010100) | $251K | $271K | $148K | |
| Redding (Tract 010803) | $387K | $417K | $146K | |
| Redding (Tract 010806) | $158K | $177K | $114K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
