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Santa Cruz, CA · ZIP 95010 · Census Tract 06087121802 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$901K
Downside (P10)
$640K
-29% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$958K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.28M
+42% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -29% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $894K | $894K | $844K | $803K | $880K | $901K | $920K | $990K | $958K |
| YoY Change | -0.0% | -5.5% | -4.9% | +9.6% | +2.4% | +2.1% | +7.6% | -3.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $716K | $673K | $640K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.3M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$716K to $1.08M
39.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$640K to $1.28M
66.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitola | $888K | $958K | +7.8% | |
| Live Oak | $894K | $1.01M | +12.7% | |
| Twin Lakes | $911K | $992K | +8.8% | |
| Amesti | $891K | $995K | +11.7% | |
| San Lorenzo Valley | $913K | $964K | +5.6% | |
| Santa Cruz | $882K | $1.02M | +15.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitola | $888K | $958K | +7.8% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 122005) | $750K | $919K | +22.5% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 100400) | $931K | $1.10M | +17.6% | |
| Twin Lakes | $1.21M | $1.42M | +17.2% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 121801) | $1.61M | $1.88M | +16.4% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 121602) | $701K | $811K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitola | $888K | $958K | $637K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110504) | $456K | $508K | $226K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110505) | $456K | $490K | $250K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110601) | $564K | $641K | $316K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110102) | $636K | $712K | $321K | |
| Santa Cruz | $701K | $811K | $377K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.