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Santa Cruz, CA · ZIP 95005 · Census Tract 06087120302 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$948K
Downside (P10)
$704K
-26% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$972K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.32M
+39% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -26% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $463K | $532K | $576K | $629K | $660K | $736K | $784K | $867K | $900K | $923K | $948K | $939K | $957K | $972K | $959K |
| YoY Change | +15.0% | +8.1% | +9.2% | +5.1% | +11.5% | +6.5% | +10.5% | +3.9% | +2.6% | +2.8% | -1.0% | +1.9% | +1.5% | -1.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $743K | $697K | $704K | $859K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.1M |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$743K to $1.12M
40.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$859K to $1.06M
21.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lomond | $933K | $972K | +4.2% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 100400) | $931K | $1.10M | +17.6% | |
| Twin Lakes | $911K | $992K | +8.8% | |
| San Lorenzo Valley | $913K | $964K | +5.6% | |
| Watsonville | $979K | $1.02M | +4.4% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 120700) | $940K | $946K | +0.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lomond | $933K | $972K | +4.2% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 122005) | $750K | $919K | +22.5% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 100400) | $931K | $1.10M | +17.6% | |
| Twin Lakes | $1.21M | $1.42M | +17.2% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 121801) | $1.61M | $1.88M | +16.4% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 121602) | $701K | $811K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lomond | $933K | $972K | $615K | |
| Santa Cruz | $701K | $811K | $377K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110102) | $636K | $712K | $321K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110601) | $564K | $641K | $316K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110505) | $456K | $490K | $250K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110504) | $456K | $508K | $226K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.