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Santa Cruz, CA · ZIP 95003 · Census Tract 06087122004 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.14M
Downside (P10)
$908K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.22M
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.61M
+41% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $862K | $918K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$282,194 | -$226,294 | -$89,894 | +$2,306 | -$40,094 | +$5,388 | +$49,985 | +$76,892 | +$18,603 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -24.7% | -19.8% | -7.9% | +0.2% | -3.5% | +0.5% | +4.4% | +6.7% | +1.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $988K | $986K | $908K | $1.0M | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.3M |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$988K to $1.3M
27.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$1.0M to $1.3M
25.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aptos | $1.13M | $1.22M | +8.2% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 122100) | $1.17M | $1.35M | +14.8% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 100200) | $1.13M | $1.29M | +14.3% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 121100) | $1.16M | $1.30M | +12.0% | |
| Watsonville | $1.18M | $1.31M | +11.1% | |
| West Santa Cruz | $1.13M | $1.23M | +9.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aptos | $1.13M | $1.22M | +8.2% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 122005) | $750K | $919K | +22.5% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 100400) | $931K | $1.10M | +17.6% | |
| Twin Lakes | $1.21M | $1.42M | +17.2% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 121801) | $1.61M | $1.88M | +16.4% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 121602) | $701K | $811K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aptos | $1.13M | $1.22M | $705K | |
| Santa Cruz | $701K | $811K | $377K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110102) | $636K | $712K | $321K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110601) | $564K | $641K | $316K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110505) | $456K | $490K | $250K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110504) | $456K | $508K | $226K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Santa Cruz, CA · ZIP 95003 · Census Tract 06087122004 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.14M
Downside (P10)
$908K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.22M
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.61M
+41% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $862K | $918K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$282,194 | -$226,294 | -$89,894 | +$2,306 | -$40,094 | +$5,388 | +$49,985 | +$76,892 | +$18,603 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -24.7% | -19.8% | -7.9% | +0.2% | -3.5% | +0.5% | +4.4% | +6.7% | +1.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $988K | $986K | $908K | $1.0M | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.3M |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$988K to $1.3M
27.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$1.0M to $1.3M
25.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aptos | $1.13M | $1.22M | +8.2% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 122100) | $1.17M | $1.35M | +14.8% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 100200) | $1.13M | $1.29M | +14.3% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 121100) | $1.16M | $1.30M | +12.0% | |
| Watsonville | $1.18M | $1.31M | +11.1% | |
| West Santa Cruz | $1.13M | $1.23M | +9.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aptos | $1.13M | $1.22M | +8.2% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 122005) | $750K | $919K | +22.5% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 100400) | $931K | $1.10M | +17.6% | |
| Twin Lakes | $1.21M | $1.42M | +17.2% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 121801) | $1.61M | $1.88M | +16.4% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 121602) | $701K | $811K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aptos | $1.13M | $1.22M | $705K | |
| Santa Cruz | $701K | $811K | $377K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110102) | $636K | $712K | $321K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110601) | $564K | $641K | $316K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110505) | $456K | $490K | $250K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110504) | $456K | $508K | $226K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
