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San Mateo, CA · ZIP 94063 · Census Tract 06081610500 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.10M
Downside (P10)
$928K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.18M
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.62M
+48% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $397K | $473K | $560K | $795K | $865K | $948K | $992K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M |
| YoY Change | +19.1% | +18.4% | +42.0% | +8.8% | +9.6% | +4.6% | +2.1% | +0.9% | +4.8% | +2.4% | +0.7% | +1.8% | +4.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.0M | $955K | $928K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.5M | $1.6M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.01M to $1.33M
29.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$928K to $1.62M
58.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Fair Oaks | $1.10M | $1.18M | +7.1% | |
| San Mateo (Tract 611800) | $1.07M | $1.27M | +18.3% | |
| South San Francisco | $1.07M | $1.15M | +7.0% | |
| San Mateo (Tract 605902) | $1.09M | $1.14M | +4.4% | |
| San Mateo (Tract 607900) | $1.10M | $1.12M | +1.6% | |
| Half Moon Bay | $1.12M | $1.11M | -0.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Fair Oaks | $1.10M | $1.18M | +7.1% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610303) | $2.02M | $2.51M | +23.9% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610902) | $1.45M | $1.74M | +20.5% | |
| Half Moon Bay | $1.48M | $1.77M | +19.7% | |
| Millbrae | $1.21M | $1.43M | +18.6% | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | +18.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Fair Oaks | $1.10M | $1.18M | $692K | |
| Daly City | $672K | $700K | $369K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 604102) | $664K | $707K | $363K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 603801) | $632K | $668K | $265K | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | $225K | |
| Redwood City | $276K | $321K | $181K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.