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San Mateo, CA · ZIP 94401 · Census Tract 06081606202 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.19M
Downside (P10)
$941K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.32M
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.71M
+43% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $840K | $935K | $947K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.3M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$355,203 | -$260,303 | -$247,503 | -$119,303 | -$101,903 | +$9,131 | +$51,667 | +$128,274 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -29.7% | -21.8% | -20.7% | -10.0% | -8.5% | +0.8% | +4.3% | +10.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $907K | $912K | $941K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.7M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$907K to $1.5M
50.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$941K to $1.7M
58.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Mateo · 94401 · (Tract 6062.2) | $1.13M | $1.32M | +17.5% | |
| Millbrae | $1.21M | $1.43M | +18.6% | |
| South San Francisco (Tract 602300) | $1.18M | $1.37M | +16.0% | |
| South San Francisco (Tract 602201) | $1.20M | $1.36M | +13.6% | |
| South San Francisco (Tract 601000) | $1.20M | $1.32M | +10.0% | |
| Daly City | $1.20M | $1.24M | +3.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Mateo · 94401 · (Tract 6062.2) | $1.13M | $1.32M | +17.5% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610303) | $2.02M | $2.51M | +23.9% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610902) | $1.45M | $1.74M | +20.5% | |
| Millbrae | $1.21M | $1.43M | +18.6% | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | +18.6% | |
| San Mateo | $1.07M | $1.27M | +18.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Mateo · 94401 · (Tract 6062.2) | $1.13M | $1.32M | $773K | |
| Daly City | $672K | $700K | $369K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 604102) | $664K | $707K | $363K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 603801) | $632K | $668K | $265K | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | $225K | |
| Redwood City | $276K | $321K | $181K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
San Mateo, CA · ZIP 94401 · Census Tract 06081606202 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.19M
Downside (P10)
$941K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.32M
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.71M
+43% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $840K | $935K | $947K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.3M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$355,203 | -$260,303 | -$247,503 | -$119,303 | -$101,903 | +$9,131 | +$51,667 | +$128,274 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -29.7% | -21.8% | -20.7% | -10.0% | -8.5% | +0.8% | +4.3% | +10.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $907K | $912K | $941K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.7M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$907K to $1.5M
50.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$941K to $1.7M
58.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Mateo · 94401 · (Tract 6062.2) | $1.13M | $1.32M | +17.5% | |
| Millbrae | $1.21M | $1.43M | +18.6% | |
| South San Francisco (Tract 602300) | $1.18M | $1.37M | +16.0% | |
| South San Francisco (Tract 602201) | $1.20M | $1.36M | +13.6% | |
| South San Francisco (Tract 601000) | $1.20M | $1.32M | +10.0% | |
| Daly City | $1.20M | $1.24M | +3.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Mateo · 94401 · (Tract 6062.2) | $1.13M | $1.32M | +17.5% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610303) | $2.02M | $2.51M | +23.9% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610902) | $1.45M | $1.74M | +20.5% | |
| Millbrae | $1.21M | $1.43M | +18.6% | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | +18.6% | |
| San Mateo | $1.07M | $1.27M | +18.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Mateo · 94401 · (Tract 6062.2) | $1.13M | $1.32M | $773K | |
| Daly City | $672K | $700K | $369K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 604102) | $664K | $707K | $363K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 603801) | $632K | $668K | $265K | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | $225K | |
| Redwood City | $276K | $321K | $181K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
