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San Mateo, CA · ZIP 94404 · Census Tract 06081608100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.66M
Downside (P10)
$1.34M
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.76M
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.23M
+34% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $937K | $909K | $997K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.6M | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.8M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$718,765 | -$747,065 | -$659,365 | -$614,265 | -$551,565 | -$381,665 | -$368,865 | -$85,165 | +$10,435 | -$38,365 | +$45,514 | +$80,098 | +$104,356 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -43.4% | -45.1% | -39.8% | -37.1% | -33.3% | -23.0% | -22.3% | -5.1% | +0.6% | -2.3% | +2.7% | +4.8% | +6.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $1.4M | $1.3M | $1.3M | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.2M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$1.4M to $2.0M
34.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$1.3M to $2.2M
50.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster City · San Mateo · (Tract 6081) | $1.63M | $1.76M | +7.9% | |
| Foster City | $1.62M | $1.91M | +17.7% | |
| Burlingame | $1.68M | $1.92M | +14.4% | |
| San Mateo | $1.68M | $1.79M | +6.4% | |
| San Carlos | $1.70M | $1.75M | +3.2% | |
| Redwood City | $1.61M | $1.65M | +2.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster City · San Mateo · (Tract 6081) | $1.63M | $1.76M | +7.9% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610303) | $2.02M | $2.51M | +23.9% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610902) | $1.45M | $1.74M | +20.5% | |
| Millbrae | $1.21M | $1.43M | +18.6% | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | +18.6% | |
| San Mateo | $1.07M | $1.27M | +18.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster City · San Mateo · (Tract 6081) | $1.63M | $1.76M | $885K | |
| Daly City | $672K | $700K | $369K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 604102) | $664K | $707K | $363K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 603801) | $632K | $668K | $265K | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | $225K | |
| Redwood City | $276K | $321K | $181K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
San Mateo, CA · ZIP 94404 · Census Tract 06081608100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.66M
Downside (P10)
$1.34M
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.76M
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.23M
+34% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $937K | $909K | $997K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.6M | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.8M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$718,765 | -$747,065 | -$659,365 | -$614,265 | -$551,565 | -$381,665 | -$368,865 | -$85,165 | +$10,435 | -$38,365 | +$45,514 | +$80,098 | +$104,356 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -43.4% | -45.1% | -39.8% | -37.1% | -33.3% | -23.0% | -22.3% | -5.1% | +0.6% | -2.3% | +2.7% | +4.8% | +6.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $1.4M | $1.3M | $1.3M | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.2M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$1.4M to $2.0M
34.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$1.3M to $2.2M
50.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster City · San Mateo · (Tract 6081) | $1.63M | $1.76M | +7.9% | |
| Foster City | $1.62M | $1.91M | +17.7% | |
| Burlingame | $1.68M | $1.92M | +14.4% | |
| San Mateo | $1.68M | $1.79M | +6.4% | |
| San Carlos | $1.70M | $1.75M | +3.2% | |
| Redwood City | $1.61M | $1.65M | +2.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster City · San Mateo · (Tract 6081) | $1.63M | $1.76M | +7.9% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610303) | $2.02M | $2.51M | +23.9% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610902) | $1.45M | $1.74M | +20.5% | |
| Millbrae | $1.21M | $1.43M | +18.6% | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | +18.6% | |
| San Mateo | $1.07M | $1.27M | +18.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster City · San Mateo · (Tract 6081) | $1.63M | $1.76M | $885K | |
| Daly City | $672K | $700K | $369K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 604102) | $664K | $707K | $363K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 603801) | $632K | $668K | $265K | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | $225K | |
| Redwood City | $276K | $321K | $181K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
