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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
San Jose, CA · ZIP 94040 · Census Tract 06085509401 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.90M
Downside (P10)
$1.34M
-29% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.98M
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.51M
+32% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -29% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $884K | $970K | $1.0M | $1.2M | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.5M | $1.9M | $1.9M | $1.9M | $1.9M | $1.9M | $1.9M | $2.0M |
| YoY Change | +9.7% | +3.5% | +16.6% | +41.5% | +1.7% | -10.5% | +22.8% | +3.8% | -0.1% | -1.1% | -0.1% | +1.4% | +2.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.3M | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $2.4M | $2.6M | $2.5M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$1.53M to $2.37M
44.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.34M to $2.51M
58.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose | $1.92M | $1.98M | +3.1% | |
| San Jose (Tract 503326) | $1.89M | $2.26M | +19.9% | |
| Sunnyvale | $1.88M | $2.00M | +6.4% | |
| San Jose (Tract 503330) | $1.88M | $1.99M | +5.9% | |
| San Jose (Tract 511913) | $1.89M | $1.99M | +5.3% | |
| San Jose (Tract 506604) | $1.87M | $1.94M | +3.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose | $1.92M | $1.98M | +3.1% | |
| San Jose (Tract 501601) | $1.05M | $1.30M | +24.0% | |
| Gilroy | $903K | $1.11M | +22.5% | |
| South Santa Clara Valley | $880K | $1.07M | +21.5% | |
| San Jose (Tract 503506) | $906K | $1.10M | +21.0% | |
| San Jose (Tract 503110) | $722K | $872K | +20.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose | $1.92M | $1.98M | $1.17M | |
| San Jose (Tract 505014) | $312K | $337K | $131K | |
| San Jose (Tract 503122) | $236K | $249K | $128K | |
| San Jose (Tract 503222) | $219K | $220K | $127K | |
| San Jose (Tract 503123) | $176K | $184K | $115K | |
| San Jose (Tract 504601) | $189K | $198K | $96K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.