Loading forecast data...
Loading forecast data...
San Jose, CA · ZIP 95116 · Census Tract 06085503713 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$518K
Downside (P10)
$390K
-25% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$561K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$701K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -25% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $215K | $240K | $266K | $335K | $343K | $384K | $420K | $484K | $482K | $512K | $518K | $526K | $538K | $561K |
| YoY Change | +11.5% | +10.7% | +26.2% | +2.2% | +12.0% | +9.5% | +15.2% | -0.4% | +6.2% | +1.1% | +1.6% | +2.3% | +4.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $434K | $408K | $390K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $616K | $623K | $701K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$434K to $616K
34.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$390K to $701K
55.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose · 95116 · (Tract 5037.13) | $519K | $561K | +8.1% | |
| San Jose (Tract 512022) | $405K | $416K | +2.7% | |
| Mountain View | $388K | $437K | +12.6% | |
| Sunnyvale | $384K | $433K | +12.7% | |
| San Jose (Tract 503116) | $368K | $413K | +12.3% | |
| San Jose (Tract 503712) | $668K | $730K | +9.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose · 95116 · (Tract 5037.13) | $519K | $561K | +8.1% | |
| San Jose (Tract 501601) | $1.05M | $1.30M | +24.0% | |
| Gilroy | $903K | $1.11M | +22.5% | |
| South Santa Clara Valley | $880K | $1.07M | +21.5% | |
| San Jose (Tract 503506) | $906K | $1.10M | +21.0% | |
| San Jose (Tract 503110) | $722K | $872K | +20.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose · 95116 · (Tract 5037.13) | $519K | $561K | $311K | |
| San Jose (Tract 504601) | $189K | $198K | $96K | |
| San Jose (Tract 503123) | $176K | $184K | $115K | |
| San Jose (Tract 503222) | $219K | $220K | $127K | |
| San Jose (Tract 503122) | $236K | $249K | $128K | |
| San Jose (Tract 505014) | $312K | $337K | $131K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.