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San Joaquin, CA · ZIP 95366 · Census Tract 06077005004 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$702K
Downside (P10)
$569K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$749K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$981K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $301K | $363K | $385K | $411K | $407K | $439K | $478K | $583K | $664K | $694K | $702K | $742K | $760K | $749K |
| YoY Change | +20.8% | +5.9% | +6.9% | -1.1% | +7.9% | +8.9% | +22.1% | +13.9% | +4.4% | +1.2% | +5.6% | +2.5% | -1.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $599K | $566K | $569K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $840K | $911K | $981K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$599K to $840K
32.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$569K to $981K
54.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ripon | $713K | $749K | +5.1% | |
| Escalon | $695K | $736K | +5.9% | |
| Lockeford | $713K | $754K | +5.8% | |
| Manteca (Tract 005122) | $685K | $737K | +7.6% | |
| Manteca (Tract 005135) | $676K | $736K | +9.0% | |
| Manteca (Tract 005106) | $731K | $837K | +14.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ripon | $713K | $749K | +5.1% | |
| Mountain House | $972K | $1.20M | +23.5% | |
| Lodi (Tract 004107) | $611K | $726K | +18.8% | |
| Manteca | $578K | $680K | +17.7% | |
| Lodi (Tract 004302) | $463K | $543K | +17.2% | |
| Escalon | $491K | $574K | +16.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ripon | $713K | $749K | $412K | |
| Stockton (Tract 003404) | $135K | $149K | $61K | |
| Manteca | $170K | $190K | $100K | |
| Stockton (Tract 000700) | $280K | $297K | $124K | |
| Stockton (Tract 001400) | $361K | $377K | $143K | |
| Tracy | $176K | $191K | $147K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.