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San Joaquin, CA · ZIP 95205 · Census Tract 06077001600 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$333K
Downside (P10)
$294K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$369K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$480K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $98K | $96K | $96K | $101K | $111K | $170K | $207K | $273K | $282K | $321K | $333K | $349K | $365K | $369K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$234,753 | -$236,353 | -$237,153 | -$231,653 | -$221,953 | -$163,053 | -$126,153 | -$59,853 | -$50,653 | -$11,453 | +$16,495 | +$32,743 | +$36,734 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -70.6% | -71.1% | -71.3% | -69.6% | -66.7% | -49.0% | -37.9% | -18.0% | -15.2% | -3.4% | +5.0% | +9.8% | +11.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $304K | $299K | $294K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $389K | $458K | $480K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$304K to $389K
24.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$294K to $480K
50.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton · 95205 · (Tract 16) | $329K | $369K | +12.1% | |
| Stockton (Tract 002000) | $339K | $390K | +15.2% | |
| Stockton (Tract 002201) | $334K | $376K | +12.6% | |
| Stockton (Tract 002503) | $331K | $366K | +10.5% | |
| Stockton (Tract 003115) | $335K | $360K | +7.3% | |
| Stockton (Tract 003700) | $339K | $363K | +7.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton · 95205 · (Tract 16) | $329K | $369K | +12.1% | |
| Lodi (Tract 004107) | $611K | $726K | +18.8% | |
| Manteca | $578K | $680K | +17.7% | |
| Lodi (Tract 004302) | $463K | $543K | +17.2% | |
| Escalon | $491K | $574K | +16.9% | |
| Stockton | $609K | $711K | +16.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton · 95205 · (Tract 16) | $329K | $369K | $186K | |
| Stockton (Tract 003308) | $380K | $407K | $147K | |
| Stockton (Tract 001400) | $361K | $377K | $143K | |
| Stockton (Tract 000700) | $280K | $297K | $124K | |
| Manteca | $170K | $190K | $100K | |
| Stockton (Tract 003404) | $135K | $149K | $61K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
San Joaquin, CA · ZIP 95205 · Census Tract 06077001600 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$333K
Downside (P10)
$294K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$369K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$480K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $98K | $96K | $96K | $101K | $111K | $170K | $207K | $273K | $282K | $321K | $333K | $349K | $365K | $369K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$234,753 | -$236,353 | -$237,153 | -$231,653 | -$221,953 | -$163,053 | -$126,153 | -$59,853 | -$50,653 | -$11,453 | +$16,495 | +$32,743 | +$36,734 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -70.6% | -71.1% | -71.3% | -69.6% | -66.7% | -49.0% | -37.9% | -18.0% | -15.2% | -3.4% | +5.0% | +9.8% | +11.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $304K | $299K | $294K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $389K | $458K | $480K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$304K to $389K
24.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$294K to $480K
50.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton · 95205 · (Tract 16) | $329K | $369K | +12.1% | |
| Stockton (Tract 002000) | $339K | $390K | +15.2% | |
| Stockton (Tract 002201) | $334K | $376K | +12.6% | |
| Stockton (Tract 002503) | $331K | $366K | +10.5% | |
| Stockton (Tract 003115) | $335K | $360K | +7.3% | |
| Stockton (Tract 003700) | $339K | $363K | +7.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton · 95205 · (Tract 16) | $329K | $369K | +12.1% | |
| Lodi (Tract 004107) | $611K | $726K | +18.8% | |
| Manteca | $578K | $680K | +17.7% | |
| Lodi (Tract 004302) | $463K | $543K | +17.2% | |
| Escalon | $491K | $574K | +16.9% | |
| Stockton | $609K | $711K | +16.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton · 95205 · (Tract 16) | $329K | $369K | $186K | |
| Stockton (Tract 003308) | $380K | $407K | $147K | |
| Stockton (Tract 001400) | $361K | $377K | $143K | |
| Stockton (Tract 000700) | $280K | $297K | $124K | |
| Manteca | $170K | $190K | $100K | |
| Stockton (Tract 003404) | $135K | $149K | $61K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
