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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
San Joaquin, CA · ZIP 95240 · Census Tract 06077004308 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$432K
Downside (P10)
$368K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$486K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$568K
+31% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +31%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $184K | $190K | $221K | $245K | $277K | $311K | $326K | $361K | $395K | $430K | $432K | $435K | $459K | $486K | $449K |
| YoY Change | +3.0% | +16.2% | +10.9% | +13.5% | +12.1% | +4.7% | +10.7% | +9.7% | +8.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +5.4% | +5.9% | -7.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $370K | $371K | $368K | $396K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $502K | $522K | $568K | $506K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$370K to $502K
30.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$396K to $506K
24.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lodi · 95240 · (Tract 43.8) | $437K | $486K | +11.2% | |
| Stockton (Tract 002800) | $431K | $488K | +13.1% | |
| Stockton (Tract 001000) | $433K | $487K | +12.4% | |
| Stockton (Tract 003210) | $432K | $467K | +8.1% | |
| Lodi | $433K | $466K | +7.5% | |
| Stockton (Tract 003217) | $429K | $449K | +4.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lodi · 95240 · (Tract 43.8) | $437K | $486K | +11.2% | |
| Mountain House | $972K | $1.20M | +23.5% | |
| Lodi (Tract 004107) | $611K | $726K | +18.8% | |
| Manteca | $578K | $680K | +17.7% | |
| Lodi (Tract 004302) | $463K | $543K | +17.2% | |
| Escalon | $491K | $574K | +16.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lodi · 95240 · (Tract 43.8) | $437K | $486K | $200K | |
| Tracy | $176K | $191K | $147K | |
| Stockton (Tract 001400) | $361K | $377K | $143K | |
| Stockton (Tract 000700) | $280K | $297K | $124K | |
| Manteca | $170K | $190K | $100K | |
| Stockton (Tract 003404) | $135K | $149K | $61K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.