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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
San Francisco, CA · ZIP 94109 · Census Tract 06075012406 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$459K
Downside (P10)
$398K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$469K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$670K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $865K | $800K | $554K | $452K | $459K | $457K | $462K | $469K |
| YoY Change | -7.5% | -30.8% | -18.3% | +1.5% | -0.5% | +1.1% | +1.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $414K | $397K | $398K | |||||
| Upside (P90) | $552K | $601K | $670K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$414K to $552K
30.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$398K to $670K
58.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | $457K | $469K | +2.6% | |
| San Francisco (Tract 060702) | $490K | $552K | +12.8% | |
| San Francisco (Tract 012204) | $391K | $433K | +10.9% | |
| San Francisco (Tract 012100) | $703K | $768K | +9.2% | |
| San Francisco (Tract 016101) | $741K | $779K | +5.1% | |
| San Francisco (Tract 017603) | $679K | $692K | +2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | $457K | $469K | +2.6% | |
| San Francisco (Tract 010101) | $1.60M | $1.95M | +22.0% | |
| San Francisco (Tract 010902) | $1.36M | $1.65M | +21.3% | |
| San Francisco (Tract 010202) | $1.43M | $1.72M | +20.6% | |
| San Francisco (Tract 022801) | $1.33M | $1.60M | +20.4% | |
| San Francisco (Tract 015802) | $1.51M | $1.80M | +19.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | $457K | $469K | $272K | |
| San Francisco (Tract 061503) | $912K | $1.02M | $420K | |
| San Francisco (Tract 016000) | $763K | $831K | $405K | |
| San Francisco (Tract 016101) | $741K | $779K | $330K | |
| San Francisco (Tract 060702) | $490K | $552K | $314K | |
| San Francisco (Tract 012204) | $391K | $433K | $276K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.