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Sacramento, CA · ZIP 95821 · Census Tract 06067006003 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$553K
Downside (P10)
$374K
-32% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$623K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$824K
+49% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -32% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 60% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $227K | $245K | $318K | $334K | $340K | $357K | $368K | $408K | $461K | $536K | $553K | $574K | $601K | $623K |
| YoY Change | +7.8% | +30.1% | +4.9% | +1.7% | +5.1% | +3.0% | +10.8% | +13.0% | +16.4% | +3.1% | +3.9% | +4.6% | +3.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $447K | $426K | $374K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $667K | $733K | $824K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$447K to $667K
38.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$374K to $824K
72.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arden-Arcade · Sacramento · (Tract 60.3) | $543K | $623K | +14.7% | |
| Sacramento (Tract 001800) | $555K | $633K | +13.9% | |
| Rancho Cordova | $555K | $629K | +13.5% | |
| Elk Grove | $552K | $598K | +8.3% | |
| Sacramento (Tract 004006) | $552K | $583K | +5.6% | |
| Orangevale | $554K | $574K | +3.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arden-Arcade · Sacramento · (Tract 60.3) | $543K | $623K | +14.7% | |
| Sacramento (Tract 007026) | $591K | $720K | +21.8% | |
| Sacramento (Tract 007027) | $390K | $471K | +21.0% | |
| Sacramento (Tract 005502) | $382K | $459K | +20.0% | |
| Arden-Arcade | $461K | $553K | +19.9% | |
| Foothill Farms | $431K | $516K | +19.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arden-Arcade · Sacramento · (Tract 60.3) | $543K | $623K | $450K | |
| Arden-Arcade | $224K | $242K | $94K | |
| Foothill Farms | $250K | $252K | $87K | |
| Rancho Cordova | $167K | $173K | $84K | |
| Sacramento (Tract 005205) | $142K | $164K | $78K | |
| Sacramento (Tract 004502) | $119K | $133K | $67K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.