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Napa, CA · ZIP 94558 · Census Tract 06055201402 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.92M
Downside (P10)
$1.50M
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.94M
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.76M
+44% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $913K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.7M | $1.8M | $1.9M | $1.9M | $1.9M | $2.0M | $1.9M |
| YoY Change | +9.5% | +0.8% | +3.6% | +5.3% | +8.7% | +21.0% | +14.5% | +8.0% | +6.4% | +1.2% | +0.8% | +0.9% | -0.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.5M | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $2.4M | $2.6M | $2.8M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.69M to $2.42M
37.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.50M to $2.76M
64.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napa | $1.92M | $1.94M | +1.3% | |
| Napa (Tract 201403) | $2.03M | $2.28M | +12.6% | |
| St. Helena (Tract 201500) | $2.07M | $2.22M | +6.8% | |
| Napa (Tract 201401) | $1.54M | $1.62M | +5.7% | |
| Calistoga | $1.28M | $1.35M | +5.4% | |
| St. Helena (Tract 201602) | $1.89M | $1.97M | +3.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napa | $1.92M | $1.94M | +1.3% | |
| Napa (Tract 201004) | $547K | $643K | +17.5% | |
| Napa (Tract 200703) | $1.09M | $1.25M | +15.2% | |
| Napa (Tract 201101) | $1.01M | $1.17M | +14.8% | |
| Napa (Tract 200503) | $985K | $1.13M | +14.5% | |
| Napa (Tract 200505) | $891K | $1.02M | +14.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napa | $1.92M | $1.94M | $1.26M | |
| Napa (Tract 200302) | $853K | $925K | $372K | |
| American Canyon | $667K | $713K | $315K | |
| Napa (Tract 201004) | $547K | $643K | $314K | |
| Napa (Tract 201200) | $592K | $634K | $289K | |
| Lake Berryessa | $464K | $485K | $215K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.