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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Merced, CA · ZIP 95315 · Census Tract 06047000205 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$350K
Downside (P10)
$297K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$388K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$521K
+49% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $258K | $273K | $329K | $332K | $348K | $350K | $352K | $370K | $388K |
| YoY Change | +5.7% | +20.7% | +0.8% | +4.8% | +0.8% | +0.5% | +5.1% | +4.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $282K | $303K | $297K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $421K | $495K | $521K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$282K to $421K
39.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$297K to $521K
57.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delhi | $351K | $388K | +10.6% | |
| Atwater (Tract 000505) | $361K | $417K | +15.5% | |
| Atwater (Tract 000603) | $353K | $399K | +13.1% | |
| Livingston-Delhi | $348K | $380K | +9.1% | |
| Atwater (Tract 000602) | $347K | $378K | +8.9% | |
| Merced | $359K | $384K | +6.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delhi | $351K | $388K | +10.6% | |
| Gustine | $436K | $522K | +19.8% | |
| Merced (Tract 001006) | $418K | $495K | +18.3% | |
| Livingston-Delhi | $443K | $523K | +18.0% | |
| Los Banos | $540K | $637K | +17.9% | |
| Merced (Tract 001700) | $321K | $371K | +15.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delhi | $351K | $388K | $224K | |
| Livingston-Delhi | $315K | $337K | $161K | |
| Dos Palos | $296K | $301K | $154K | |
| Merced (Tract 001503) | $214K | $230K | $151K | |
| Planada-Le Grand | $291K | $312K | $142K | |
| Merced (Tract 000903) | $242K | $270K | $110K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.