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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Mendocino, CA · ZIP 95466 · Census Tract 06045011200 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$771K
Downside (P10)
$695K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$830K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.15M
+49% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $519K | $521K | $517K | $473K | $560K | $566K | $609K | $648K | $772K | $751K | $771K | $778K | $819K | $830K |
| YoY Change | +0.4% | -0.7% | -8.6% | +18.4% | +1.1% | +7.6% | +6.4% | +19.2% | -2.8% | +2.8% | +0.8% | +5.3% | +1.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $726K | $693K | $695K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $970K | $1.1M | $1.1M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$726K to $970K
31.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$695K to $1.15M
54.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mendocino | $767K | $830K | +8.3% | |
| Mendocino (Tract 011001) | $682K | $770K | +12.8% | |
| Ukiah | $670K | $740K | +10.4% | |
| Mendocino (Tract 011004) | $720K | $791K | +9.9% | |
| Hopland | $682K | $745K | +9.2% | |
| Point Arena | $712K | $759K | +6.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mendocino | $767K | $830K | +8.3% | |
| Willits (Tract 010602) | $376K | $430K | +14.5% | |
| Mendocino | $682K | $770K | +12.8% | |
| Ukiah (Tract 011300) | $496K | $558K | +12.5% | |
| Willits (Tract 010601) | $576K | $645K | +12.1% | |
| Ukiah (Tract 011400) | $550K | $610K | +10.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mendocino | $767K | $830K | $455K | |
| Ukiah (Tract 011501) | $503K | $536K | $243K | |
| Ukiah (Tract 011502) | $392K | $425K | $227K | |
| Willits (Tract 010602) | $376K | $430K | $219K | |
| Ukiah (Tract 011600) | $364K | $401K | $216K | |
| Willits (Tract 010700) | $397K | $427K | $200K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.