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Madera, CA · ZIP 93643 · Census Tract 06039000102 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$504K
Downside (P10)
$427K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$540K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$693K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $239K | $271K | $273K | $281K | $288K | $287K | $272K | $368K | $445K | $508K | $504K | $532K | $535K | $540K | $532K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$264,774 | -$232,974 | -$230,874 | -$222,874 | -$216,474 | -$217,174 | -$231,774 | -$135,874 | -$58,874 | +$4,226 | +$28,308 | +$30,374 | +$35,714 | +$27,756 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -52.5% | -46.2% | -45.8% | -44.2% | -42.9% | -43.1% | -46.0% | -26.9% | -11.7% | +0.8% | +5.6% | +6.0% | +7.1% | +5.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $419K | $406K | $427K | $471K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $616K | $678K | $693K | $592K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$419K to $616K
36.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$471K to $592K
22.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakhurst-North Fork | $501K | $540K | +7.7% | |
| Bonadelle Ranchos | $496K | $567K | +14.4% | |
| Chowchilla | $465K | $512K | +10.3% | |
| Madera (Tract 000517) | $552K | $590K | +7.0% | |
| Yosemite Lakes | $495K | $511K | +3.1% | |
| Madera (Tract 000509) | $529K | $528K | -0.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakhurst-North Fork | $501K | $540K | +7.7% | |
| Madera (Tract 000901) | $273K | $324K | +18.6% | |
| Madera West | $567K | $660K | +16.3% | |
| Oakhurst | $413K | $476K | +15.2% | |
| Oakhurst-North Fork | $424K | $488K | +15.1% | |
| Madera (Tract 000701) | $409K | $470K | +15.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakhurst-North Fork | $501K | $540K | $266K | |
| Madera (Tract 000604) | $277K | $313K | $175K | |
| Chowchilla (Tract 000301) | $284K | $317K | $173K | |
| Madera (Tract 000802) | $259K | $292K | $144K | |
| Chowchilla (Tract 000201) | $273K | $293K | $143K | |
| Madera (Tract 000602) | $193K | $212K | $131K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Madera, CA · ZIP 93643 · Census Tract 06039000102 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$504K
Downside (P10)
$427K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$540K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$693K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $239K | $271K | $273K | $281K | $288K | $287K | $272K | $368K | $445K | $508K | $504K | $532K | $535K | $540K | $532K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$264,774 | -$232,974 | -$230,874 | -$222,874 | -$216,474 | -$217,174 | -$231,774 | -$135,874 | -$58,874 | +$4,226 | +$28,308 | +$30,374 | +$35,714 | +$27,756 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -52.5% | -46.2% | -45.8% | -44.2% | -42.9% | -43.1% | -46.0% | -26.9% | -11.7% | +0.8% | +5.6% | +6.0% | +7.1% | +5.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $419K | $406K | $427K | $471K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $616K | $678K | $693K | $592K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$419K to $616K
36.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$471K to $592K
22.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakhurst-North Fork | $501K | $540K | +7.7% | |
| Bonadelle Ranchos | $496K | $567K | +14.4% | |
| Chowchilla | $465K | $512K | +10.3% | |
| Madera (Tract 000517) | $552K | $590K | +7.0% | |
| Yosemite Lakes | $495K | $511K | +3.1% | |
| Madera (Tract 000509) | $529K | $528K | -0.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakhurst-North Fork | $501K | $540K | +7.7% | |
| Madera (Tract 000901) | $273K | $324K | +18.6% | |
| Madera West | $567K | $660K | +16.3% | |
| Oakhurst | $413K | $476K | +15.2% | |
| Oakhurst-North Fork | $424K | $488K | +15.1% | |
| Madera (Tract 000701) | $409K | $470K | +15.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakhurst-North Fork | $501K | $540K | $266K | |
| Madera (Tract 000604) | $277K | $313K | $175K | |
| Chowchilla (Tract 000301) | $284K | $317K | $173K | |
| Madera (Tract 000802) | $259K | $292K | $144K | |
| Chowchilla (Tract 000201) | $273K | $293K | $143K | |
| Madera (Tract 000602) | $193K | $212K | $131K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
