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Madera, CA · ZIP 93644 · Census Tract 06039000104 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$428K
Downside (P10)
$370K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$476K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$578K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $213K | $208K | $234K | $271K | $288K | $301K | $306K | $395K | $404K | $404K | $428K | $436K | $459K | $476K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$215,481 | -$220,681 | -$193,981 | -$157,181 | -$140,481 | -$127,481 | -$122,481 | -$33,281 | -$24,081 | -$24,081 | +$7,608 | +$30,989 | +$47,477 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -50.3% | -51.5% | -45.3% | -36.7% | -32.8% | -29.8% | -28.6% | -7.8% | -5.6% | -5.6% | +1.8% | +7.2% | +11.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $349K | $354K | $370K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $517K | $568K | $578K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$349K to $517K
38.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$370K to $578K
43.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakhurst | $413K | $476K | +15.2% | |
| Oakhurst-North Fork | $424K | $488K | +15.1% | |
| Madera (Tract 000701) | $409K | $470K | +15.0% | |
| Madera (Tract 000702) | $413K | $468K | +13.4% | |
| Madera (Tract 000513) | $409K | $457K | +11.6% | |
| Madera (Tract 000512) | $402K | $438K | +8.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakhurst | $413K | $476K | +15.2% | |
| Madera (Tract 000901) | $273K | $324K | +18.6% | |
| Madera West | $567K | $660K | +16.3% | |
| Oakhurst-North Fork | $424K | $488K | +15.1% | |
| Madera (Tract 000701) | $409K | $470K | +15.0% | |
| Bonadelle Ranchos | $496K | $567K | +14.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakhurst | $413K | $476K | $208K | |
| Madera (Tract 000604) | $277K | $313K | $175K | |
| Chowchilla (Tract 000301) | $284K | $317K | $173K | |
| Madera (Tract 000802) | $259K | $292K | $144K | |
| Chowchilla (Tract 000201) | $273K | $293K | $143K | |
| Madera (Tract 000602) | $193K | $212K | $131K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Madera, CA · ZIP 93644 · Census Tract 06039000104 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$428K
Downside (P10)
$370K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$476K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$578K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $213K | $208K | $234K | $271K | $288K | $301K | $306K | $395K | $404K | $404K | $428K | $436K | $459K | $476K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$215,481 | -$220,681 | -$193,981 | -$157,181 | -$140,481 | -$127,481 | -$122,481 | -$33,281 | -$24,081 | -$24,081 | +$7,608 | +$30,989 | +$47,477 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -50.3% | -51.5% | -45.3% | -36.7% | -32.8% | -29.8% | -28.6% | -7.8% | -5.6% | -5.6% | +1.8% | +7.2% | +11.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $349K | $354K | $370K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $517K | $568K | $578K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$349K to $517K
38.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$370K to $578K
43.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakhurst | $413K | $476K | +15.2% | |
| Oakhurst-North Fork | $424K | $488K | +15.1% | |
| Madera (Tract 000701) | $409K | $470K | +15.0% | |
| Madera (Tract 000702) | $413K | $468K | +13.4% | |
| Madera (Tract 000513) | $409K | $457K | +11.6% | |
| Madera (Tract 000512) | $402K | $438K | +8.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakhurst | $413K | $476K | +15.2% | |
| Madera (Tract 000901) | $273K | $324K | +18.6% | |
| Madera West | $567K | $660K | +16.3% | |
| Oakhurst-North Fork | $424K | $488K | +15.1% | |
| Madera (Tract 000701) | $409K | $470K | +15.0% | |
| Bonadelle Ranchos | $496K | $567K | +14.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakhurst | $413K | $476K | $208K | |
| Madera (Tract 000604) | $277K | $313K | $175K | |
| Chowchilla (Tract 000301) | $284K | $317K | $173K | |
| Madera (Tract 000802) | $259K | $292K | $144K | |
| Chowchilla (Tract 000201) | $273K | $293K | $143K | |
| Madera (Tract 000602) | $193K | $212K | $131K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
