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Kern, CA · ZIP 93306 · Census Tract 06029001106 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$161K
Downside (P10)
$122K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$178K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$238K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $155K | $125K | $157K | $161K | $160K | $165K | $178K |
| YoY Change | -19.6% | +26.4% | +2.6% | -0.8% | +3.3% | +7.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $134K | $126K | $122K | ||||
| Upside (P90) | $204K | $221K | $238K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$134K to $204K
43.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$122K to $238K
65.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillcrest · Bakersfield · (Tract 11.6) | $159K | $178K | +12.0% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002305) | $163K | $192K | +17.5% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002001) | $164K | $183K | +11.7% | |
| East Kern | $150K | $164K | +9.0% | |
| Weedpatch | $147K | $151K | +2.7% | |
| West Kern | $160K | $162K | +1.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillcrest · Bakersfield · (Tract 11.6) | $159K | $178K | +12.0% | |
| Delano | $282K | $342K | +21.5% | |
| East Kern | $214K | $255K | +19.3% | |
| Rosamond | $303K | $361K | +19.2% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002815) | $329K | $392K | +19.2% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002817) | $301K | $356K | +18.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillcrest · Bakersfield · (Tract 11.6) | $159K | $178K | $116K | |
| Oildale | $128K | $134K | $61K | |
| Lake Isabella | $91K | $104K | $60K | |
| West Kern | $160K | $162K | $57K | |
| East Kern | $78K | $84K | $55K | |
| Bakersfield | $80K | $88K | $42K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.