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Kern, CA · ZIP 93304 · Census Tract 06029001901 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$278K
Downside (P10)
$233K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$288K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$435K
+57% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +57%. The model forecasts this with 61% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $157K | $157K | $166K | $171K | $182K | $180K | $194K | $233K | $252K | $274K | $278K | $283K | $286K | $288K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$121,231 | -$121,031 | -$112,131 | -$106,831 | -$96,031 | -$98,131 | -$83,531 | -$45,231 | -$25,431 | -$3,831 | +$5,410 | +$8,522 | +$9,980 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -43.7% | -43.6% | -40.4% | -38.5% | -34.6% | -35.3% | -30.1% | -16.3% | -9.2% | -1.4% | +1.9% | +3.1% | +3.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $248K | $242K | $233K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $345K | $388K | $435K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$248K to $345K
34.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$233K to $435K
70.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bakersfield · 93304 · (Tract 19.1) | $276K | $288K | +4.4% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002701) | $275K | $323K | +17.4% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 003112) | $284K | $326K | +14.9% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 000904) | $273K | $300K | +9.8% | |
| West Kern | $272K | $289K | +6.1% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002901) | $275K | $288K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bakersfield · 93304 · (Tract 19.1) | $276K | $288K | +4.4% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002815) | $329K | $392K | +19.2% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002817) | $301K | $356K | +18.3% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 003002) | $203K | $240K | +18.1% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002305) | $163K | $192K | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bakersfield · 93304 · (Tract 19.1) | $276K | $288K | $202K | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 000400) | $137K | $146K | $68K | |
| Oildale | $128K | $134K | $61K | |
| West Kern | $160K | $162K | $57K | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 000601) | $80K | $88K | $42K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Kern, CA · ZIP 93304 · Census Tract 06029001901 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$278K
Downside (P10)
$233K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$288K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$435K
+57% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +57%. The model forecasts this with 61% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $157K | $157K | $166K | $171K | $182K | $180K | $194K | $233K | $252K | $274K | $278K | $283K | $286K | $288K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$121,231 | -$121,031 | -$112,131 | -$106,831 | -$96,031 | -$98,131 | -$83,531 | -$45,231 | -$25,431 | -$3,831 | +$5,410 | +$8,522 | +$9,980 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -43.7% | -43.6% | -40.4% | -38.5% | -34.6% | -35.3% | -30.1% | -16.3% | -9.2% | -1.4% | +1.9% | +3.1% | +3.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $248K | $242K | $233K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $345K | $388K | $435K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$248K to $345K
34.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$233K to $435K
70.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bakersfield · 93304 · (Tract 19.1) | $276K | $288K | +4.4% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002701) | $275K | $323K | +17.4% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 003112) | $284K | $326K | +14.9% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 000904) | $273K | $300K | +9.8% | |
| West Kern | $272K | $289K | +6.1% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002901) | $275K | $288K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bakersfield · 93304 · (Tract 19.1) | $276K | $288K | +4.4% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002815) | $329K | $392K | +19.2% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002817) | $301K | $356K | +18.3% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 003002) | $203K | $240K | +18.1% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002305) | $163K | $192K | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bakersfield · 93304 · (Tract 19.1) | $276K | $288K | $202K | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 000400) | $137K | $146K | $68K | |
| Oildale | $128K | $134K | $61K | |
| West Kern | $160K | $162K | $57K | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 000601) | $80K | $88K | $42K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
