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Fresno, CA · ZIP 93727 · Census Tract 06019001413 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$443K
Downside (P10)
$379K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$488K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$628K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $230K | $236K | $243K | $257K | $275K | $292K | $314K | $367K | $407K | $439K | $443K | $463K | $490K | $488K | $457K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$213,088 | -$207,288 | -$200,088 | -$185,988 | -$168,188 | -$150,888 | -$128,788 | -$75,588 | -$35,988 | -$3,688 | +$19,739 | +$47,209 | +$44,976 | +$14,230 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -48.1% | -46.8% | -45.2% | -42.0% | -38.0% | -34.1% | -29.1% | -17.1% | -8.1% | -0.8% | +4.5% | +10.7% | +10.2% | +3.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $396K | $398K | $379K | $405K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $572K | $604K | $628K | $515K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$396K to $572K
38.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$405K to $515K
24.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno | $445K | $488K | +9.5% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004215) | $457K | $522K | +14.2% | |
| Fresno (Tract 005509) | $454K | $505K | +11.2% | |
| Fresno (Tract 001416) | $434K | $474K | +9.2% | |
| Fresno (Tract 005507) | $456K | $481K | +5.3% | |
| Fresno (Tract 005527) | $455K | $464K | +2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno | $445K | $488K | +9.5% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002000) | $108K | $132K | +21.8% | |
| Clovis | $553K | $658K | +19.1% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002702) | $239K | $284K | +18.6% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002200) | $370K | $436K | +17.8% | |
| Fresno (Tract 005304) | $326K | $384K | +17.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno | $445K | $488K | $249K | |
| Fresno (Tract 001407) | $174K | $190K | $99K | |
| Fresno (Tract 002501) | $195K | $218K | $95K | |
| Fresno (Tract 001100) | $187K | $198K | $85K | |
| Fresno (Tract 002000) | $108K | $132K | $74K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Fresno, CA · ZIP 93727 · Census Tract 06019001413 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$443K
Downside (P10)
$379K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$488K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$628K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $230K | $236K | $243K | $257K | $275K | $292K | $314K | $367K | $407K | $439K | $443K | $463K | $490K | $488K | $457K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$213,088 | -$207,288 | -$200,088 | -$185,988 | -$168,188 | -$150,888 | -$128,788 | -$75,588 | -$35,988 | -$3,688 | +$19,739 | +$47,209 | +$44,976 | +$14,230 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -48.1% | -46.8% | -45.2% | -42.0% | -38.0% | -34.1% | -29.1% | -17.1% | -8.1% | -0.8% | +4.5% | +10.7% | +10.2% | +3.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $396K | $398K | $379K | $405K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $572K | $604K | $628K | $515K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$396K to $572K
38.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$405K to $515K
24.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno | $445K | $488K | +9.5% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004215) | $457K | $522K | +14.2% | |
| Fresno (Tract 005509) | $454K | $505K | +11.2% | |
| Fresno (Tract 001416) | $434K | $474K | +9.2% | |
| Fresno (Tract 005507) | $456K | $481K | +5.3% | |
| Fresno (Tract 005527) | $455K | $464K | +2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno | $445K | $488K | +9.5% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002000) | $108K | $132K | +21.8% | |
| Clovis | $553K | $658K | +19.1% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002702) | $239K | $284K | +18.6% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002200) | $370K | $436K | +17.8% | |
| Fresno (Tract 005304) | $326K | $384K | +17.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno | $445K | $488K | $249K | |
| Fresno (Tract 001407) | $174K | $190K | $99K | |
| Fresno (Tract 002501) | $195K | $218K | $95K | |
| Fresno (Tract 001100) | $187K | $198K | $85K | |
| Fresno (Tract 002000) | $108K | $132K | $74K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
