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Fresno, CA · ZIP 93727 · Census Tract 06019001409 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$486K
Downside (P10)
$404K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$528K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$782K
+61% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +61%. The model forecasts this with 61% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $266K | $288K | $314K | $325K | $331K | $359K | $373K | $411K | $446K | $468K | $486K | $501K | $515K | $528K | $484K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$220,012 | -$197,612 | -$171,812 | -$161,212 | -$154,712 | -$127,212 | -$113,312 | -$75,012 | -$40,012 | -$17,712 | +$14,533 | +$29,089 | +$42,160 | -$1,912 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -45.3% | -40.7% | -35.4% | -33.2% | -31.8% | -26.2% | -23.3% | -15.4% | -8.2% | -3.6% | +3.0% | +6.0% | +8.7% | -0.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $429K | $400K | $404K | $431K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $636K | $705K | $782K | $560K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$429K to $636K
41.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$431K to $560K
26.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno | $481K | $528K | +9.8% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004505) | $476K | $550K | +15.5% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004506) | $478K | $536K | +12.0% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004208) | $484K | $533K | +10.2% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004409) | $493K | $537K | +8.9% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004503) | $486K | $500K | +2.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno | $481K | $528K | +9.8% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002000) | $108K | $132K | +21.8% | |
| Clovis | $553K | $658K | +19.1% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002702) | $239K | $284K | +18.6% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002200) | $370K | $436K | +17.8% | |
| Fresno (Tract 005304) | $326K | $384K | +17.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno | $481K | $528K | $378K | |
| Fresno (Tract 001407) | $174K | $190K | $99K | |
| Fresno (Tract 002501) | $195K | $218K | $95K | |
| Fresno (Tract 001100) | $187K | $198K | $85K | |
| Fresno (Tract 002000) | $108K | $132K | $74K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Fresno, CA · ZIP 93727 · Census Tract 06019001409 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$486K
Downside (P10)
$404K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$528K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$782K
+61% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +61%. The model forecasts this with 61% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $266K | $288K | $314K | $325K | $331K | $359K | $373K | $411K | $446K | $468K | $486K | $501K | $515K | $528K | $484K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$220,012 | -$197,612 | -$171,812 | -$161,212 | -$154,712 | -$127,212 | -$113,312 | -$75,012 | -$40,012 | -$17,712 | +$14,533 | +$29,089 | +$42,160 | -$1,912 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -45.3% | -40.7% | -35.4% | -33.2% | -31.8% | -26.2% | -23.3% | -15.4% | -8.2% | -3.6% | +3.0% | +6.0% | +8.7% | -0.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $429K | $400K | $404K | $431K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $636K | $705K | $782K | $560K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$429K to $636K
41.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$431K to $560K
26.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno | $481K | $528K | +9.8% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004505) | $476K | $550K | +15.5% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004506) | $478K | $536K | +12.0% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004208) | $484K | $533K | +10.2% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004409) | $493K | $537K | +8.9% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004503) | $486K | $500K | +2.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno | $481K | $528K | +9.8% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002000) | $108K | $132K | +21.8% | |
| Clovis | $553K | $658K | +19.1% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002702) | $239K | $284K | +18.6% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002200) | $370K | $436K | +17.8% | |
| Fresno (Tract 005304) | $326K | $384K | +17.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno | $481K | $528K | $378K | |
| Fresno (Tract 001407) | $174K | $190K | $99K | |
| Fresno (Tract 002501) | $195K | $218K | $95K | |
| Fresno (Tract 001100) | $187K | $198K | $85K | |
| Fresno (Tract 002000) | $108K | $132K | $74K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
