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Fresno, CA · ZIP 93711 · Census Tract 06019004409 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$500K
Downside (P10)
$405K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$537K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$708K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $211K | $232K | $276K | $290K | $288K | $325K | $365K | $413K | $437K | $478K | $500K | $511K | $515K | $537K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$288,559 | -$267,759 | -$223,359 | -$210,059 | -$211,259 | -$175,059 | -$135,059 | -$86,159 | -$62,959 | -$21,959 | +$11,844 | +$15,028 | +$37,008 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -57.8% | -53.6% | -44.7% | -42.0% | -42.3% | -35.0% | -27.0% | -17.2% | -12.6% | -4.4% | +2.4% | +3.0% | +7.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $433K | $408K | $405K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $587K | $651K | $708K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$433K to $587K
30.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$405K to $708K
56.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno · 93711 · (Tract 44.9) | $493K | $537K | +8.9% | |
| Fresno (Tract 003812) | $498K | $563K | +13.0% | |
| Fresno (Tract 005504) | $504K | $562K | +11.7% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004208) | $484K | $533K | +10.2% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004218) | $501K | $547K | +9.1% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004503) | $486K | $500K | +2.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno · 93711 · (Tract 44.9) | $493K | $537K | +8.9% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002000) | $108K | $132K | +21.8% | |
| Clovis | $553K | $658K | +19.1% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002702) | $239K | $284K | +18.6% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002200) | $370K | $436K | +17.8% | |
| Fresno (Tract 005304) | $326K | $384K | +17.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno · 93711 · (Tract 44.9) | $493K | $537K | $304K | |
| Fresno (Tract 001407) | $174K | $190K | $99K | |
| Fresno (Tract 002501) | $195K | $218K | $95K | |
| Fresno (Tract 001100) | $187K | $198K | $85K | |
| Fresno (Tract 002000) | $108K | $132K | $74K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Fresno, CA · ZIP 93711 · Census Tract 06019004409 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$500K
Downside (P10)
$405K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$537K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$708K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $211K | $232K | $276K | $290K | $288K | $325K | $365K | $413K | $437K | $478K | $500K | $511K | $515K | $537K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$288,559 | -$267,759 | -$223,359 | -$210,059 | -$211,259 | -$175,059 | -$135,059 | -$86,159 | -$62,959 | -$21,959 | +$11,844 | +$15,028 | +$37,008 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -57.8% | -53.6% | -44.7% | -42.0% | -42.3% | -35.0% | -27.0% | -17.2% | -12.6% | -4.4% | +2.4% | +3.0% | +7.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $433K | $408K | $405K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $587K | $651K | $708K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$433K to $587K
30.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$405K to $708K
56.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno · 93711 · (Tract 44.9) | $493K | $537K | +8.9% | |
| Fresno (Tract 003812) | $498K | $563K | +13.0% | |
| Fresno (Tract 005504) | $504K | $562K | +11.7% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004208) | $484K | $533K | +10.2% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004218) | $501K | $547K | +9.1% | |
| Fresno (Tract 004503) | $486K | $500K | +2.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno · 93711 · (Tract 44.9) | $493K | $537K | +8.9% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002000) | $108K | $132K | +21.8% | |
| Clovis | $553K | $658K | +19.1% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002702) | $239K | $284K | +18.6% | |
| Fresno (Tract 002200) | $370K | $436K | +17.8% | |
| Fresno (Tract 005304) | $326K | $384K | +17.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno · 93711 · (Tract 44.9) | $493K | $537K | $304K | |
| Fresno (Tract 001407) | $174K | $190K | $99K | |
| Fresno (Tract 002501) | $195K | $218K | $95K | |
| Fresno (Tract 001100) | $187K | $198K | $85K | |
| Fresno (Tract 002000) | $108K | $132K | $74K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
