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Alameda, CA · Census Tract 06001001500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$335K
Downside (P10)
$285K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$432K
+29% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$723K
+116% by 2030
Base case: +29% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +116%. The model forecasts this with 44% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $335K | $399K | $418K | $425K | $432K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$64,229 | +$83,610 | +$90,621 | +$96,868 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +19.2% | +25.0% | +27.1% | +28.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $326K | $319K | $294K | $285K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $520K | $609K | $673K | $723K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$326K to $520K
48.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$285K to $723K
101.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001500 | $335K | $432K | +28.9% | |
| Alameda (Tract 001600) | $422K | $612K | +44.9% | |
| Alameda (Tract 001300) | $415K | $561K | +35.3% | |
| Oakland (Tract 409500) | $464K | $471K | +1.6% | |
| Oakland (Tract 402600) | $538K | $543K | +1.0% | |
| Oakland (Tract 408900) | $492K | $487K | -1.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001500 | $335K | $432K | +28.9% | |
| Alameda (Tract 001600) | $422K | $612K | +44.9% | |
| Alameda (Tract 001300) | $415K | $561K | +35.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001500 | $335K | $432K | $438K | |
| Oakland (Tract 402600) | $538K | $543K | $136K | |
| Oakland (Tract 408900) | $492K | $487K | $127K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Alameda, CA · Census Tract 06001001500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$335K
Downside (P10)
$285K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$432K
+29% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$723K
+116% by 2030
Base case: +29% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +116%. The model forecasts this with 44% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $335K | $399K | $418K | $425K | $432K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$64,229 | +$83,610 | +$90,621 | +$96,868 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +19.2% | +25.0% | +27.1% | +28.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $326K | $319K | $294K | $285K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $520K | $609K | $673K | $723K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$326K to $520K
48.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$285K to $723K
101.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001500 | $335K | $432K | +28.9% | |
| Alameda (Tract 001600) | $422K | $612K | +44.9% | |
| Alameda (Tract 001300) | $415K | $561K | +35.3% | |
| Oakland (Tract 409500) | $464K | $471K | +1.6% | |
| Oakland (Tract 402600) | $538K | $543K | +1.0% | |
| Oakland (Tract 408900) | $492K | $487K | -1.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001500 | $335K | $432K | +28.9% | |
| Alameda (Tract 001600) | $422K | $612K | +44.9% | |
| Alameda (Tract 001300) | $415K | $561K | +35.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001500 | $335K | $432K | $438K | |
| Oakland (Tract 402600) | $538K | $543K | $136K | |
| Oakland (Tract 408900) | $492K | $487K | $127K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
