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Tucson, AZ · ZIP 85716 · Census Tract 04019001802 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$357K
Downside (P10)
$297K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$357K
-0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$493K
+38% by 2030
Base case: -0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $159K | $166K | $174K | $185K | $190K | $276K | $291K | $344K | $350K | $348K | $357K | $347K | $358K | $357K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$198,086 | -$191,186 | -$182,786 | -$171,786 | -$166,586 | -$80,586 | -$65,886 | -$12,586 | -$7,086 | -$8,786 | -$9,347 | +$1,322 | -$180 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -55.5% | -53.6% | -51.2% | -48.1% | -46.7% | -22.6% | -18.5% | -3.5% | -2.0% | -2.5% | -2.6% | +0.4% | -0.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $299K | $300K | $297K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $429K | $434K | $493K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$299K to $429K
37.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$297K to $493K
55.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucson · 85716 · (Tract 18.2) | $352K | $357K | +1.2% | |
| Tucson (Tract 001500) | $359K | $402K | +11.9% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004065) | $353K | $382K | +8.3% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004073) | $362K | $382K | +5.4% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004048) | $352K | $365K | +3.7% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004026) | $358K | $368K | +2.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucson · 85716 · (Tract 18.2) | $352K | $357K | +1.2% | |
| Tucson (Tract 000300) | $332K | $402K | +21.2% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004077) | $319K | $379K | +19.0% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004047) | $393K | $467K | +18.6% | |
| Tucson (Tract 002400) | $169K | $201K | +18.5% | |
| Tucson (Tract 003103) | $166K | $195K | +17.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucson · 85716 · (Tract 18.2) | $352K | $357K | $196K | |
| Tucson (Tract 004039) | $119K | $129K | $67K | |
| Tucson (Tract 004133) | $76K | $79K | $34K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Tucson, AZ · ZIP 85716 · Census Tract 04019001802 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$357K
Downside (P10)
$297K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$357K
-0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$493K
+38% by 2030
Base case: -0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $159K | $166K | $174K | $185K | $190K | $276K | $291K | $344K | $350K | $348K | $357K | $347K | $358K | $357K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$198,086 | -$191,186 | -$182,786 | -$171,786 | -$166,586 | -$80,586 | -$65,886 | -$12,586 | -$7,086 | -$8,786 | -$9,347 | +$1,322 | -$180 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -55.5% | -53.6% | -51.2% | -48.1% | -46.7% | -22.6% | -18.5% | -3.5% | -2.0% | -2.5% | -2.6% | +0.4% | -0.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $299K | $300K | $297K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $429K | $434K | $493K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$299K to $429K
37.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$297K to $493K
55.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucson · 85716 · (Tract 18.2) | $352K | $357K | +1.2% | |
| Tucson (Tract 001500) | $359K | $402K | +11.9% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004065) | $353K | $382K | +8.3% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004073) | $362K | $382K | +5.4% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004048) | $352K | $365K | +3.7% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004026) | $358K | $368K | +2.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucson · 85716 · (Tract 18.2) | $352K | $357K | +1.2% | |
| Tucson (Tract 000300) | $332K | $402K | +21.2% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004077) | $319K | $379K | +19.0% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004047) | $393K | $467K | +18.6% | |
| Tucson (Tract 002400) | $169K | $201K | +18.5% | |
| Tucson (Tract 003103) | $166K | $195K | +17.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucson · 85716 · (Tract 18.2) | $352K | $357K | $196K | |
| Tucson (Tract 004039) | $119K | $129K | $67K | |
| Tucson (Tract 004133) | $76K | $79K | $34K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
