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Tucson, AZ · ZIP 85715 · Census Tract 04019004047 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$407K
Downside (P10)
$352K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$467K
+15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$613K
+51% by 2030
Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +51%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $197K | $201K | $203K | $212K | $219K | $242K | $256K | $293K | $333K | $376K | $407K | $422K | $433K | $467K | $392K |
| YoY Change | +2.2% | +1.0% | +4.3% | +3.3% | +10.4% | +5.7% | +14.4% | +13.6% | +13.1% | +8.2% | +3.7% | +2.6% | +7.8% | -16.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $351K | $340K | $352K | $349K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $486K | $557K | $613K | $444K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$351K to $486K
32.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$349K to $444K
24.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucson | $393K | $467K | +18.6% | |
| Sahuarita | $416K | $463K | +11.3% | |
| Oro Valley | $400K | $436K | +9.1% | |
| Casas Adobes | $407K | $438K | +7.5% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004109) | $406K | $426K | +4.8% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004440) | $417K | $423K | +1.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucson | $393K | $467K | +18.6% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004649) | $891K | $1.08M | +21.4% | |
| Tucson (Tract 000300) | $332K | $402K | +21.2% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004620) | $519K | $618K | +19.1% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004077) | $319K | $379K | +19.0% | |
| Tucson (Tract 002400) | $169K | $201K | +18.5% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.