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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Tucson, AZ · ZIP 85705 · Census Tract 04019000402 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$768K
Downside (P10)
$644K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$796K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.09M
+41% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $427K | $423K | $431K | $435K | $731K | $768K | $774K | $782K | $796K |
| YoY Change | -0.9% | +2.0% | +0.8% | +68.1% | +5.2% | +0.7% | +1.0% | +1.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $657K | $649K | $644K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $921K | $993K | $1.1M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$657K to $921K
34.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$644K to $1.09M
55.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucson | $759K | $796K | +5.0% | |
| Catalina Foothills (Tract 004712) | $765K | $850K | +11.0% | |
| Catalina Foothills (Tract 004711) | $838K | $917K | +9.5% | |
| Tanque Verde | $725K | $791K | +9.1% | |
| Catalina Foothills (Tract 004730) | $825K | $897K | +8.7% | |
| Catalina Foothills (Tract 004726) | $756K | $756K | +0.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucson | $759K | $796K | +5.0% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004649) | $891K | $1.08M | +21.4% | |
| Tucson (Tract 000300) | $332K | $402K | +21.2% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004620) | $519K | $618K | +19.1% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004077) | $319K | $379K | +19.0% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004047) | $393K | $467K | +18.6% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.