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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Tucson, AZ · ZIP 85622 · Census Tract 04019004325 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$451K
Downside (P10)
$356K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$494K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$651K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $281K | $270K | $272K | $279K | $295K | $314K | $336K | $374K | $395K | $430K | $451K | $461K | $486K | $494K |
| YoY Change | -3.9% | +0.9% | +2.5% | +5.4% | +6.7% | +6.9% | +11.4% | +5.6% | +8.9% | +4.9% | +2.2% | +5.5% | +1.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $375K | $382K | $356K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $548K | $591K | $651K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$375K to $548K
37.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$356K to $651K
59.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arivaca · Green Valley · (Tract 43.25) | $452K | $494K | +9.3% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004418) | $457K | $535K | +17.1% | |
| Tucson (Tract 005400) | $454K | $494K | +9.0% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004044) | $462K | $488K | +5.7% | |
| Oro Valley | $442K | $466K | +5.6% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004643) | $439K | $444K | +1.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arivaca · Green Valley · (Tract 43.25) | $452K | $494K | +9.3% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004649) | $891K | $1.08M | +21.4% | |
| Tucson (Tract 000300) | $332K | $402K | +21.2% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004620) | $519K | $618K | +19.1% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004077) | $319K | $379K | +19.0% | |
| Tucson (Tract 004047) | $393K | $467K | +18.6% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.