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Santa Cruz, AZ · ZIP 85624 · Census Tract 04023966000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$433K
Downside (P10)
$334K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$441K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$594K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $331K | $334K | $317K | $317K | $314K | $315K | $301K | $378K | $404K | $422K | $433K | $442K | $440K | $441K | $436K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$102,938 | -$99,138 | -$116,438 | -$116,638 | -$119,338 | -$118,038 | -$132,838 | -$55,838 | -$29,438 | -$11,438 | +$8,963 | +$6,858 | +$7,789 | +$2,893 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -23.7% | -22.9% | -26.9% | -26.9% | -27.5% | -27.2% | -30.6% | -12.9% | -6.8% | -2.6% | +2.1% | +1.6% | +1.8% | +0.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $364K | $349K | $334K | $380K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $514K | $530K | $594K | $496K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$364K to $514K
33.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$380K to $496K
26.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patagonia | $426K | $441K | +3.5% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966301) | $248K | $281K | +13.6% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966200) | $293K | $321K | +9.3% | |
| Rio Rico (Tract 966107) | $305K | $332K | +8.8% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966101) | $328K | $354K | +8.0% | |
| Rio Rico (Tract 966111) | $235K | $247K | +5.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patagonia | $426K | $441K | +3.5% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966301) | $248K | $281K | +13.6% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966401) | $165K | $182K | +10.2% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966110) | $202K | $222K | +10.0% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966103) | $168K | $184K | +9.4% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966200) | $293K | $321K | +9.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patagonia | $426K | $441K | $260K | |
| Rio Rico | $235K | $247K | $119K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966103) | $168K | $184K | $112K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966302) | $168K | $178K | $98K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966401) | $165K | $182K | $94K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966402) | $132K | $139K | $68K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Santa Cruz, AZ · ZIP 85624 · Census Tract 04023966000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$433K
Downside (P10)
$334K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$441K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$594K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $331K | $334K | $317K | $317K | $314K | $315K | $301K | $378K | $404K | $422K | $433K | $442K | $440K | $441K | $436K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$102,938 | -$99,138 | -$116,438 | -$116,638 | -$119,338 | -$118,038 | -$132,838 | -$55,838 | -$29,438 | -$11,438 | +$8,963 | +$6,858 | +$7,789 | +$2,893 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -23.7% | -22.9% | -26.9% | -26.9% | -27.5% | -27.2% | -30.6% | -12.9% | -6.8% | -2.6% | +2.1% | +1.6% | +1.8% | +0.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $364K | $349K | $334K | $380K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $514K | $530K | $594K | $496K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$364K to $514K
33.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$380K to $496K
26.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patagonia | $426K | $441K | +3.5% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966301) | $248K | $281K | +13.6% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966200) | $293K | $321K | +9.3% | |
| Rio Rico (Tract 966107) | $305K | $332K | +8.8% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966101) | $328K | $354K | +8.0% | |
| Rio Rico (Tract 966111) | $235K | $247K | +5.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patagonia | $426K | $441K | +3.5% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966301) | $248K | $281K | +13.6% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966401) | $165K | $182K | +10.2% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966110) | $202K | $222K | +10.0% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966103) | $168K | $184K | +9.4% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966200) | $293K | $321K | +9.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patagonia | $426K | $441K | $260K | |
| Rio Rico | $235K | $247K | $119K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966103) | $168K | $184K | $112K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966302) | $168K | $178K | $98K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966401) | $165K | $182K | $94K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966402) | $132K | $139K | $68K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
