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Santa Cruz, AZ · ZIP 85621 · Census Tract 04023966103 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$169K
Downside (P10)
$130K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$184K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$243K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $55K | $55K | $59K | $72K | $58K | $48K | $57K | $109K | $121K | $166K | $169K | $171K | $178K | $184K |
| YoY Change | -0.7% | +8.2% | +21.9% | -20.3% | -16.0% | +17.4% | +92.4% | +11.0% | +36.6% | +2.1% | +1.2% | +4.0% | +3.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $138K | $136K | $130K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $212K | $227K | $243K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$138K to $212K
43.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$130K to $243K
61.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nogales | $168K | $184K | +9.4% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966401) | $165K | $182K | +10.2% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966110) | $202K | $222K | +10.0% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966302) | $168K | $178K | +5.9% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966402) | $132K | $139K | +5.0% | |
| Rio Rico | $222K | $232K | +4.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nogales | $168K | $184K | +9.4% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966301) | $248K | $281K | +13.6% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966401) | $165K | $182K | +10.2% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966110) | $202K | $222K | +10.0% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966200) | $293K | $321K | +9.3% | |
| Rio Rico | $305K | $332K | +8.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nogales | $168K | $184K | $112K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966110) | $202K | $222K | $130K | |
| Rio Rico | $235K | $247K | $119K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966302) | $168K | $178K | $98K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966401) | $165K | $182K | $94K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966402) | $132K | $139K | $68K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.