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Coconino, AZ · ZIP 86040 · Census Tract 04005002102 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$344K
Downside (P10)
$278K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$362K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$517K
+50% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $257K | $267K | $278K | $253K | $323K | $344K | $343K | $359K | $362K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$87,135 | -$76,635 | -$66,235 | -$90,735 | -$20,335 | -$1,033 | +$15,540 | +$18,470 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -25.3% | -22.3% | -19.3% | -26.4% | -5.9% | -0.3% | +4.5% | +5.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $297K | $282K | $278K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $393K | $477K | $517K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$297K to $393K
27.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$278K to $517K
66.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuba City · Page · (Tract 21.2) | $325K | $362K | +11.4% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000302) | $394K | $458K | +16.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 001103) | $342K | $391K | +14.4% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 002202) | $446K | $494K | +10.7% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000500) | $290K | $296K | +2.1% | |
| Kaibab Plateau | $251K | $254K | +1.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuba City · Page · (Tract 21.2) | $325K | $362K | +11.4% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 001101) | $614K | $744K | +21.0% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000302) | $394K | $458K | +16.2% | |
| Tuba City | $57K | $66K | +16.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000601) | $692K | $800K | +15.7% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000901) | $681K | $781K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuba City · Page · (Tract 21.2) | $325K | $362K | $239K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 942201) | $81K | $86K | $42K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 942202) | $57K | $66K | $39K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 944900) | $89K | $98K | $38K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945000) | $53K | $58K | $36K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945100) | $62K | $70K | $30K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Coconino, AZ · ZIP 86040 · Census Tract 04005002102 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$344K
Downside (P10)
$278K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$362K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$517K
+50% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $257K | $267K | $278K | $253K | $323K | $344K | $343K | $359K | $362K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$87,135 | -$76,635 | -$66,235 | -$90,735 | -$20,335 | -$1,033 | +$15,540 | +$18,470 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -25.3% | -22.3% | -19.3% | -26.4% | -5.9% | -0.3% | +4.5% | +5.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $297K | $282K | $278K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $393K | $477K | $517K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$297K to $393K
27.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$278K to $517K
66.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuba City · Page · (Tract 21.2) | $325K | $362K | +11.4% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000302) | $394K | $458K | +16.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 001103) | $342K | $391K | +14.4% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 002202) | $446K | $494K | +10.7% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000500) | $290K | $296K | +2.1% | |
| Kaibab Plateau | $251K | $254K | +1.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuba City · Page · (Tract 21.2) | $325K | $362K | +11.4% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 001101) | $614K | $744K | +21.0% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000302) | $394K | $458K | +16.2% | |
| Tuba City | $57K | $66K | +16.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000601) | $692K | $800K | +15.7% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000901) | $681K | $781K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuba City · Page · (Tract 21.2) | $325K | $362K | $239K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 942201) | $81K | $86K | $42K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 942202) | $57K | $66K | $39K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 944900) | $89K | $98K | $38K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945000) | $53K | $58K | $36K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945100) | $62K | $70K | $30K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
