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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Coconino, AZ · ZIP 86004 · Census Tract 04005000302 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$396K
Downside (P10)
$342K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$458K
+16% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$594K
+50% by 2030
Base case: +16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $174K | $222K | $261K | $313K | $384K | $396K | $414K | $443K | $458K |
| YoY Change | +27.2% | +17.8% | +19.7% | +22.9% | +3.1% | +4.5% | +7.0% | +3.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $352K | $346K | $342K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $506K | $544K | $594K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$352K to $506K
37.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$342K to $594K
55.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flagstaff | $394K | $458K | +16.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 001103) | $342K | $391K | +14.4% | |
| Tuba City | $325K | $362K | +11.4% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 002202) | $446K | $494K | +10.7% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000400) | $464K | $480K | +3.5% | |
| Williams | $487K | $497K | +2.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flagstaff | $394K | $458K | +16.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 001101) | $614K | $744K | +21.0% | |
| Tuba City | $57K | $66K | +16.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000601) | $692K | $800K | +15.7% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000901) | $681K | $781K | +14.7% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 001103) | $342K | $391K | +14.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flagstaff | $394K | $458K | $252K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 942201) | $81K | $86K | $42K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 942202) | $57K | $66K | $39K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 944900) | $89K | $98K | $38K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945000) | $53K | $58K | $36K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945100) | $62K | $70K | $30K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.