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Coconino, AZ · ZIP 86036 · Census Tract 04005002000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$252K
Downside (P10)
$205K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$254K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$350K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $144K | $161K | $162K | $163K | $185K | $166K | $206K | $250K | $266K | $250K | $252K | $248K | $253K | $254K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$108,616 | -$91,316 | -$90,416 | -$89,916 | -$67,416 | -$86,516 | -$46,416 | -$2,216 | +$13,584 | -$2,116 | -$4,327 | +$457 | +$1,827 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -43.0% | -36.2% | -35.8% | -35.6% | -26.7% | -34.3% | -18.4% | -0.9% | +5.4% | -0.8% | -1.7% | +0.2% | +0.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $207K | $208K | $205K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $310K | $329K | $350K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$207K to $310K
41.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$205K to $350K
57.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaibab Plateau | $251K | $254K | +1.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000302) | $394K | $458K | +16.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 001103) | $342K | $391K | +14.4% | |
| Tuba City | $325K | $362K | +11.4% | |
| Williams | $194K | $215K | +10.8% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000500) | $290K | $296K | +2.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaibab Plateau | $251K | $254K | +1.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 001101) | $614K | $744K | +21.0% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000302) | $394K | $458K | +16.2% | |
| Tuba City | $57K | $66K | +16.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000601) | $692K | $800K | +15.7% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000901) | $681K | $781K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaibab Plateau | $251K | $254K | $145K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 942201) | $81K | $86K | $42K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 942202) | $57K | $66K | $39K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 944900) | $89K | $98K | $38K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945000) | $53K | $58K | $36K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945100) | $62K | $70K | $30K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Coconino, AZ · ZIP 86036 · Census Tract 04005002000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$252K
Downside (P10)
$205K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$254K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$350K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $144K | $161K | $162K | $163K | $185K | $166K | $206K | $250K | $266K | $250K | $252K | $248K | $253K | $254K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$108,616 | -$91,316 | -$90,416 | -$89,916 | -$67,416 | -$86,516 | -$46,416 | -$2,216 | +$13,584 | -$2,116 | -$4,327 | +$457 | +$1,827 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -43.0% | -36.2% | -35.8% | -35.6% | -26.7% | -34.3% | -18.4% | -0.9% | +5.4% | -0.8% | -1.7% | +0.2% | +0.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $207K | $208K | $205K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $310K | $329K | $350K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$207K to $310K
41.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$205K to $350K
57.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaibab Plateau | $251K | $254K | +1.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000302) | $394K | $458K | +16.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 001103) | $342K | $391K | +14.4% | |
| Tuba City | $325K | $362K | +11.4% | |
| Williams | $194K | $215K | +10.8% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000500) | $290K | $296K | +2.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaibab Plateau | $251K | $254K | +1.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 001101) | $614K | $744K | +21.0% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000302) | $394K | $458K | +16.2% | |
| Tuba City | $57K | $66K | +16.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000601) | $692K | $800K | +15.7% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000901) | $681K | $781K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaibab Plateau | $251K | $254K | $145K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 942201) | $81K | $86K | $42K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 942202) | $57K | $66K | $39K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 944900) | $89K | $98K | $38K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945000) | $53K | $58K | $36K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945100) | $62K | $70K | $30K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
