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Crittenden, AR · ZIP 72364 · Census Tract 05035030805 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$172K
Downside (P10)
$138K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$173K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$230K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $112K | $115K | $118K | $120K | $120K | $129K | $136K | $151K | $160K | $166K | $172K | $174K | $174K | $173K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$60,310 | -$57,510 | -$53,910 | -$52,110 | -$52,410 | -$43,510 | -$36,610 | -$20,710 | -$11,710 | -$5,810 | +$1,518 | +$1,946 | +$1,376 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -35.0% | -33.4% | -31.3% | -30.3% | -30.5% | -25.3% | -21.3% | -12.0% | -6.8% | -3.4% | +0.9% | +1.1% | +0.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $148K | $141K | $138K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $195K | $202K | $230K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$148K to $195K
26.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$138K to $230K
53.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion | $169K | $173K | +2.5% | |
| West Memphis | $193K | $223K | +15.6% | |
| Mississippi | $205K | $229K | +11.6% | |
| Jasper | $187K | $204K | +8.9% | |
| Near Proctor | $147K | $160K | +8.9% | |
| Tyronza area | $157K | $167K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion | $169K | $173K | +2.5% | |
| Crittenden (Tract 000202) | $206K | $280K | +36.4% | |
| Crittenden (Tract 000201) | $234K | $303K | +29.6% | |
| West Memphis | $193K | $223K | +15.6% | |
| Bob Ward | $124K | $142K | +15.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion | $169K | $173K | $92K | |
| West Memphis (Tract 030302) | $79K | $85K | $53K | |
| West Memphis (Tract 030503) | $75K | $81K | $49K | |
| Black Oak area | $73K | $73K | $37K | |
| West Memphis (Tract 030101) | $65K | $69K | $34K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Crittenden, AR · ZIP 72364 · Census Tract 05035030805 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$172K
Downside (P10)
$138K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$173K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$230K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $112K | $115K | $118K | $120K | $120K | $129K | $136K | $151K | $160K | $166K | $172K | $174K | $174K | $173K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$60,310 | -$57,510 | -$53,910 | -$52,110 | -$52,410 | -$43,510 | -$36,610 | -$20,710 | -$11,710 | -$5,810 | +$1,518 | +$1,946 | +$1,376 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -35.0% | -33.4% | -31.3% | -30.3% | -30.5% | -25.3% | -21.3% | -12.0% | -6.8% | -3.4% | +0.9% | +1.1% | +0.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $148K | $141K | $138K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $195K | $202K | $230K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$148K to $195K
26.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$138K to $230K
53.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion | $169K | $173K | +2.5% | |
| West Memphis | $193K | $223K | +15.6% | |
| Mississippi | $205K | $229K | +11.6% | |
| Jasper | $187K | $204K | +8.9% | |
| Near Proctor | $147K | $160K | +8.9% | |
| Tyronza area | $157K | $167K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion | $169K | $173K | +2.5% | |
| Crittenden (Tract 000202) | $206K | $280K | +36.4% | |
| Crittenden (Tract 000201) | $234K | $303K | +29.6% | |
| West Memphis | $193K | $223K | +15.6% | |
| Bob Ward | $124K | $142K | +15.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion | $169K | $173K | $92K | |
| West Memphis (Tract 030302) | $79K | $85K | $53K | |
| West Memphis (Tract 030503) | $75K | $81K | $49K | |
| Black Oak area | $73K | $73K | $37K | |
| West Memphis (Tract 030101) | $65K | $69K | $34K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
